Let’s say, if just for the sake of argument, that the outcome of the federal election depends on how the vote goes in Ontario.

Because that’s the way it usually goes, and nothing in the dynamics of this campaign suggests there’s a compelling reason to expect it to be different. Conservative Leder Pierre Poilievre can sweep all of Alberta and the best he’ll pick up is two Liberal seats. Ontario has 74 Liberals, more than three times the total for all of western Canada. That being the case, Poilievre has considerable work to do to if he wants the province to help make him prime minister.