With the 2024 U.S. presidential election less than four months away, Democrats now face a perfect political storm. President Joe Biden’s startlingly unfocused debate performance against Donald Trump leaves party officials, and many of the Democrats’ likeliest voters, calling for a change at the top of the ticket.

A few weeks ago, backing Biden was thought to be the Democrats’ best hope. After all, it’s not easy to beat a president seeking re-election. Since 1932, only Jimmy Carter, the elder George Bush and Donald Trump have failed. A Biden retirement or a credible primary challenge seemed needlessly dangerous.