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National Post
National Post
18 Jun 2024


NextImg:FIRST READING: New record-low poll shows Liberals are continuing to hemorrhage supporters

First Reading is a daily newsletter keeping you posted on the travails of Canadian politicos, all curated by the National Post’s own Tristin Hopper. To get an early version sent directly to your inbox, sign up here.

Even with the Trudeau government already poised for a crushing defeat at the next federal election, each passing day is continuing to yield thousands of Canadians abandoning their plans to vote Liberal.

At least, that’s the takeaway from a new Abacus Data poll showing the Liberals with their lowest-ever share of the popular vote since forming government in 2015.

According to the new survey, if an election were held tomorrow the Liberals would capture a mere 22 per cent of ballots cast.

When these kinds of numbers are projected across the 343 ridings that will be contested in the next election, the result is a House of Commons in which the Liberal caucus could very well plummet to fourth place.

A widely circulated projection of the Abacus poll by the election modeller Raymoud Liu shows the Liberals capturing just 37 seats. It would be a defeat on par with the 34 seats that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff captured in the 2011 election; the all-time worst showing for the federal Liberals in Canadian showing.