Israel has begun its attack on Iran:
Israel said it struck dozens of targets across Iran aiming to cripple Tehran’s nuclear program, pushing the region toward a new conflict with uncertain consequences.
The U.S. officially denies having any part in the attack, but the attack would not be possible without the extensive support that the U.S. has provided to Israel for decades. The Trump administration has claimed that it didn’t want Israel to attack now, but clearly they did nothing to stop it from happening. U.S. forces may not be directly involved in the current operation, but there is no question that Trump owns this outcome thanks to his bankrupt Iran policy and his reflexive backing for the Israeli government.
Israel’s bombing campaign is likely to be a prolonged one. We can expect Iran’s response to be swift and intense, and Iran has enough missiles that it will likely be able to overwhelm Israeli defenses and inflict serious damage. Steve Witkoff reportedly told a gathering of Senate Republicans this week that Iranian retaliation could result in a “mass casualty” event. That is what Netanyahu has chosen to bring on his own country through his reckless aggression and his desire to cling to power.
As I said earlier, this is criminal aggression. It is also simply deranged. The Israeli government claims that it is acting “preemptively,” but there is no imminent threat to preempt. Israel is trampling on international law and violating Iranian sovereignty in clear violation of the U.N. Charter. Netanyahu has reconfirmed that his government is one of the principal threats to regional peace and stability.
The idea that the threat of an Israeli attack was some sort of ruse to improve the U.S. negotiating position was too clever by half. Sometimes an insane threat to attack another country is just an insane threat to attack another country. It is hard to see how there can be a negotiating process between the U.S. and Iran while this is going on. We have to assume that this was one of the real reasons why Netanyahu chose to attack now. The negotiations weren’t going anywhere thanks to Trump’s maximalism, but Netanyahu didn’t want to take the chance there might be a diplomatic breakthrough.