In recent weeks the rhetoric around Iran’s nuclear weapons programme has grown in intensity, as the Iranians announced they had reached the 60% enrichment mark, which means there is only a small jump to weapons grade material.
President Trump threatened to destroy it unless Tehran returned to the negotiation table – they didn’t, and he did! In sum the ‘hot’ air stopped, the Mullahs did not negotiate, Trump unleashed the almighty power of the US military and ‘obliterated’, his words, the Iranian nuclear weapons programme. As the dust begins to settle around Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, there is much hyperbole and ‘guff’ in my opinion being talked about the state of Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme.
Most of this is by some experts and commentators who do not appear to understand the physics around nuclear fusion and the dynamics required to create a nuclear explosion.
Number one requirement is Uranium enriched to 90-95%, which they do not have – period. They may well have saved some of the 60% enriched material, some are reporting, but will require centrifuges, mostly destroyed, nuclear scientists, mostly killed and ballistic missiles, mostly used up, to create a viable nuclear weapon. Even the most optimistic Iranian supporters should concede this is now highly unlikely for a very long time.
So, what could they do? They could try and make an ‘Improvised nuclear device’ using the uranium they have, something called a ‘gun gadget device’ to initiate a chain reaction and some sort of delivery means.
ISIS and Al Qaeda tried this for years and got nowhere near to success, except alert the CIA and MI6 to their intensions and the subsequent apprehension of those involved. Finally, they could create a ‘dirty bomb’ from the remaining fissile material and blow it up to create radiological contamination, though I am unaware of a successful ‘dirty bomb’ ever having been used. If even ISIS and Al Qaeda did not try and use it as a means of mass terror, that is a pretty good indication that it would be a very damp squib.
The inadequacies of the Iranian military have been so comprehensively exposed by the Israeli and now US attacks that it is little wonder that the Supreme Leader believed only nuclear weapons would give him a voice on the world stage. But Iran was the centre of the axis of evil and its proxies, Hezbollah, HAMAS and the Houthis have destabilised the Middle East for far too long, and a nuclear capable Iran would no doubt have blown us all to ‘kingdom come”.
So, maybe this time, at least, President Trump has got it right and if the Ayatollah has any concern for himself or his people, he will gallop towards Trump’s negotiation table? Equally, hopefully Putin, having just witnessed the power of the US military and the non-existent Russian air defence on show in Iran, may trot towards a Ukrainian ceasefire and peace deal?