President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine will be in Washington, DC, today, February 28, to meet with President Donald Trump. This is a strange return for the battle-weary leader, and the scope of his pilgrimage is a different animal. His previous jaunts to the nation’s capital were largely of the sort with a rattling tin cup in hand, but as the war with Russia has surpassed the three-year mark with no obvious advantage to either side, Mr. Zelensky has a new reality to face. There’s an America First doctrine to contend with, which might be to his advantage.
The Ukrainian economy – since gaining independence and bringing about the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 – has been a fiscal roller coaster, albeit one with very few high points. Its exports have been unreliable, switching from Russian markets (which basically ended after the invasion of Crimea) to the struggling EU and then to China as top partners. Ukraine’s GDP is just one-third of neighboring Poland. And as the war continues, it is unlikely to improve anytime soon.
Under President Biden, the US cooperative strategy was to support the belabored nation with cash (some in hard currency, the rest in arms and munition access) for “as long as it takes.” As Ronald Reagan once noted, “Status Quo, you know, is Latin for ‘the mess we’re in.’” Many of Zelensky’s overseas trips since the outbreak of the war have been, in essence, pleas to continue funding his defense efforts. With Trump in the White House, however, free money appears off the table.
So how can turning off the spigot benefit a leader who is reliant on the largesse of foreign taxpayers? Well, the answer could be that transactional relationships are now the new normal in Washington, DC.
Trump has made it crystal clear that international relations must benefit the United States. Whether that’s through high tariffs or economic “perestroika,” the days of dollars for diplomacy are over. Each country must play fair and deliver what it owes. For the 47th president, the Ukraine situation has become a focal point of “what does America get?”
It is anticipated that the US and Ukraine will today sign a deal on “rare minerals” that would essentially compensate America for the dollars already spent and create an ongoing fiscal relationship. The fact is, Ukraine can’t benefit from its wealth of resources while at war, and if Russia takes more territory, it loses out on the option of exploiting such wealth later. A deal in which the most powerful nation in the world shares mineral ownership means that the US has a direct interest in protecting the country from further incursion.
While details of the deal are still to be finalized, early reports suggest that any funds from resource development would go into a restructuring package managed by representatives of Ukraine and the US. The fund would seek further investment, and it seems probable that – based on the sheer amounts of rare materials available – the operation has the potential for lucrative success. And that success, along with further negotiations on ceasefires, could mean a lot more than just fiscal growth.
As Victor Davis Hanson writes in The Daily Signal:
“Let’s get real. There’s going to be a deal based on what everybody expects. Is it going to be perfect? No. Is it going to stop the greatest slaughter in Europe since Stalingrad? Maybe 1.6 million dead, wounded, and missing, on aggregate, on both sides? Yes.”
Ukraine earned its freedom more than three decades ago and has since failed to become the economic powerhouse it once promised to be. Growth has been anemic at best, and investment has been cautious due to a long history of corruption within government and private enterprise.
To the north of Ukraine is Belarus, with a 2023 GDP per capita of $7,800; to the south, Romania, with a GDP per capita of $17,400; and in the middle geographically, Ukraine, with just over $5,000 per capita GDP. The 2024 rankings place it 45th out of 47 European countries. Without substantial inwards investment, even if the war ends tomorrow, it faces a decade of struggle and increasing poverty.
Whatever the outcome of today’s summit, President Zelensky needs to keep an eye on the future and an ear open to the voices of the past. The “as long as it takes” strategy of the previous US administration – one echoed by many EU leaders – consigns Ukraine to either ultimate failure or a Pyrrhic victory in which his countrymen spend their remaining years trying to repair a damaged shell of a nation. The visiting president has a once-in-a-generation chance to break the cycle of dependence and forge a new independent path. And as a revitalized partner, that may suit the America First agenda.