Is the calm ocean of employment gains about to metastasize into a tropical storm? The US labor market has stayed healthy amid economic uncertainty and global trade disputes. However, while President Donald Trump’s tariffs have not burned down the jobs arena, a chorus of economists has behaved like a Cassandra, anticipating a substantial slowdown.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the April Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as the JOLTS report. In today’s economic climate, it has become a yawn-inducing lagging indicator, particularly as the financial markets and broader economy can change rapidly in response to a random Trump Truth Social post. That said, the April numbers were fascinating as this was, at least for now, the peak of the Liberation Day madness.
Quits, a crucial metric for economists since it can determine workers’ confidence in finding jobs in the current labor market, dropped 150,000 to a four-month low of 3.194 million. The quits rate, a measure of voluntary job leavers as a share of total employment, dipped from 2.1% to 2%. Additionally, new hires and layoffs were flat, confirming the 2025 trend of employers taking a wait-and-see approach before making drastic changes.
JOLTS data were a prelude to the upcoming main event on June 6: the May jobs report. Early forecasts suggest the US economy added 130,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. These projections are likely to be more or less accurate, considering that the weekly initial jobless claims have been relatively stable over the last few months.
But what about the second half of 2025? According to Apollo Wealth Management, the US labor market is expected to produce approximately 64,000 monthly payroll gains by year’s end.
After the first-quarter GDP growth rate was negative 0.2%, the talking heads on MSNBC and CNN immediately proclaimed to the heavens that the United States was halfway to a recession. Of course, a deeper dive into the Bureau of Economic Analysis data reveals that a spike in imports and a modest decline in government spending contributed to the tepid contraction.
What do the experts expect for the current quarter? It is indeed a fascinating turn of events.
The widely watched Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDPNow Model estimate suggests that the US economy will grow robustly in the April-June period. As of June 2, the real GDP growth rate is expected to be 4.6%, up from the May 30 outlook of 3.8% and from the early May low of about 1%.
“After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 4.0 percent and 0.5 percent,” the regional central bank said.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast, an alternative GDP model, suggests a more modest 2.4% expansion in the second quarter. That said, if either estimate comes to fruition, President Trump will be drowning in Diet Coke, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will dance the Charleston during a press briefing, and MAGA Country will point and laugh at Jim Acosta.
Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, the outgoing self-proclaimed “Dogefather,” again tore into Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. In a June 3 post on the social media platform X, Musk referred to the legislation as a “disgusting abomination” that would worsen federal budget deficits.
“I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore,” Musk said, reiterating his position from late last month “This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.”
The White House shrugged off Musk’s remarks. “Look, the president already knows where Elon Musk stood on this bill,” Leavitt told reporters at a press briefing. “It doesn’t change the President’s opinion. This is one big, beautiful bill, and he’s sticking to it.” The president, meanwhile, targeted Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) for his opposition to the tax policy centerpiece of Trump’s 2.0 agenda.
“Rand Paul has very little understanding of the BBB, especially the tremendous GROWTH that is coming. He loves voting ‘NO’ on everything, he thinks it’s good politics, but it’s not. The BBB is a big WINNER!!!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Rand votes NO on everything, but never has any practical or constructive ideas. His ideas are actually crazy (losers!). The people of Kentucky can’t stand him. This is a BIG GROWTH BILL!”
Estimates say that the OBBB will grow the deficit by as much as $5 trillion over the next decade. The Trump administration has pushed back against this claim, averring on June 3 that it provides the largest deficit reduction in three decades, “with $1.6 trillion in mandatory savings.” The only way to know is to see what happens in 2034.