When Congress comes together on Monday, September 29, lawmakers will have less than 48 hours to work out a deal and avert a government shutdown. America’s top politicians and those who follow them are used to the partisan brinksmanship by now, of course – but this time, things are different. President Donald Trump looks to use any shutdown as yet another chance to trim the federal workforce, making the stakes even higher than usual. Meanwhile, it seems more legislators from either side are warming up to the idea of pulling the plug. Will one side blink and cave to the other’s demands, or will everyone stand their ground, consequences be damned?
On Wednesday, September 24, the Trump administration sent a memo instructing federal agencies to get ready for large-scale layoffs should funding lapse without being renewed by midnight, October 1. “[A]gencies are directed to use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force (RIF) notices for all employees in programs, projects, or activities (PPAs) that satisfy all three of the following conditions: (1) discretionary funding lapses on October 1, 2025; (2) another source of funding, such as H.R.1 (Public Law 119-21) is not currently available; and (3) the PPA is not consistent with the President’s priorities.”
Normally, what happens in the event of a shutdown is that anyone deemed “non-essential” is sent home and not paid. That closes – or, at least, limits operations of – museums, national parks, scientific agencies, and veterans’ services. It suspends health inspections. Many air traffic controllers, law enforcement agents, and power grid personnel, among others, must continue working but without pay.
In the past, Congress has eventually always passed a continuing resolution that restarts funding, at least temporarily, and covers all these employees for backpay – whether they worked or not. This ends up costing the taxpayer even more in the long run and, despite this, it still leaves those workers high and dry for the duration of the shutdown, whether they work or not. As anyone who has ever gone without a paycheck knows, rent, utilities, vehicle payments, etc., don’t pause along with the pay, and grocery stores don’t hand out food on the promise of getting paid later.
For those employees culled by RIF initiatives, however, it’s just a career ender – no back pay, no going back to work, just straight to the unemployment line.
Now consider the memo that circulated about the Trump administration again. Any project, program, or agency that doesn’t align with President Trump’s vision for the nation and also isn’t funded by the Big Beautiful Bill or some other law as of October 1 is on the chopping block. Even if it’s required by some other law, every related employee who isn’t required by law to keep it running could be canned. What projects, programs, and agencies are going to suffer the most from this, then? Well, it won’t be MAGA initiatives, that’s for sure! Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called it an “attempt at intimidation.”
“This is nothing new and has nothing to do with funding the government,” Schumer said in a statement. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, another New York Democrat, said the president’s goal was to ruin people’s lives and “punish hardworking families.” He went on to say that Democrats won’t be intimidated, however. Meanwhile, many conservative lawmakers – not to mention Republican and Libertarian voters – are just waiting for more cuts.
Could these skeptical Democrats have a point, though? In a way, yes. It seems reasonable to assume that President Trump wants to apply pressure to congressional Democrats to sign on to the clean continuing resolution proposed by Republicans. On the other hand, though, the president has been trying to cut down the federal government anyway, and we’re on track to lose 300,000 federal employees by the end of the year even without the shutdown firings, after all. So even if the Democrats won’t play ball, he can still claim a win.
Despite the much higher stakes than usual, neither side seems ready to blink. When last we played this game of brinksmanship with the nation’s finances, Sen. Schumer caved at the last moment, recruiting a handful of moderate Democrats to join him in putting the GOP continuing resolution over the 60-vote threshold. And the more progressive side of his party roasted soundly for it.
Now, Schumer says he isn’t backing down. And according to recent polling, that’s what the Democratic Party’s base wants. According to the Republican Study Committee, various GOP lawmakers, and President Trump, the Democrats demand another $1.5 trillion in new spending before they’ll back another full funding or even just a continuing resolution to keep things rolling short-term. That would include free healthcare for illegal aliens, permanently extending some COVID-era subsidies for abortion and gender transitioning, and restoring funding to NPR and PBS. In short, undoing everything Trump and the Republicans have accomplished so far and then some.
Both sides seem to think that if a shutdown occurs, they can spin it as the opposing party’s fault and use it as political ammo for the coming midterms. And as long as that remains the case, it doesn’t look like an agreement is on the horizon. The president does believe the Democrats will be the ones to flinch at the last moment. Who knows? An eleventh-hour deal could materialize – but until then, Congress continues to careen towards what may be the closest thing to a real government shutdown we’ve seen yet.