The Democratic Party is losing registered voters at an ominous clip, according to a recent analysis by The New York Times. More voters chose to be Republicans than Democrats last year for the first time since 2018. Between the last two presidential elections, Democrats lost significant ground to Republicans in a nationwide swing totaling 4.5 million registered voters: 2.4 million joined the GOP rolls, and roughly 2.1 million ditched their Democratic affiliation. The numbers are staggering, suggesting the problem for the left is far worse than anybody imagined. The GOP is gaining in blue and red regions and narrowing gaps in battleground states. The future looks bleak for Democrats.
The Times used voter registration data collected by L2, a nonpartisan data firm, and found “significant Democratic erosion” in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania – all battleground states. In North Carolina, the Democratic lead has dwindled to fewer than 17,000 affiliated voters, down from almost 400,000 four years ago. In November 2020, Democrats were ahead in Pennsylvania by 517,310 active voters. That edge has plummeted to roughly 50,000. Within the last five years, almost twice as many Pennsylvania voters switched from Democratic to Republican as the other way around.
The reasons for this are numerous and will likely be studied and discussed for decades: frustration over the 2024 election loss, economic failures under Biden, lack of leadership, internal party divisions, and constant attacks against the opposition, to name a few.
Meanwhile, Republicans have put immense effort into improving voter registration. Conservative activist Scott Presler is often credited with Trump’s presidential victory in Pennsylvania. Presler created a PAC called Early Vote Action to register new Republican voters in often overlooked places like gun ranges, Amish communities, truck stops, gas stations, and service plazas. He spent much of 2024 in the Keystone State and was in New Jersey earlier this year, aiming to flip it red.
In June, Presler was in PA for the Republican Party’s annual summer meeting and held voter training classes, emphasizing the importance of getting voters to the polls for this year’s statewide judicial elections. The guy is dedicated, and he’s already looking ahead to 2026 when Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro is up for re-election.
“Shapiro is shaking in his gosh darn boots,” Presler said to attendees. “These Democrats are nervous because they know you guys are on the verge of flipping this to a red commonwealth. … Let’s make that our priority: that by 2026, all three of these counties we flip before we defeat Democrat Gov. Shapiro next year.”
Senator Greg Rothman (R-PA) believes Presler was undoubtedly a big part of Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania last year. It’s hard to argue with him, too. Bucks County registration in Philadelphia leaned Republican in 2024 for the first time since 2007, and Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate in the 21st century to carry the county.
Regardless of how the Democratic Party has lost so many registered voters over the years, it raises many questions about the party’s long-term health. It is a multi-faceted problem with no quick fix, but if Democrats want a head start to better days, perhaps they could follow Demosthenes’ advice when asked what to do about the decline of Athens: “Don’t do what you are doing now.”