It’s time again for the Reagan Institute to discover what Americans — Republicans, Democrats, and Independents — think about US national security and foreign policy. The just-released Reagan Institute Summer Survey revealed Americans have opinions not generally reported by traditional news media. Conducted between May 30 and June 6, 2023, the survey sampled 1,254 adults, 494 by telephone, and 760 through an online panel. In a general view of US direction, the results are not encouraging.
Since the Joe Biden administration took office in January 2021, the percentage of survey respondents who believe the United States is on the “wrong track” increased from 51% in February 2021 to 69% in June 2023, a significant boost in pessimistic opinions. More than 85% of Republicans surveyed believe the country is on the wrong trajectory. Democrats are, as expected, less pessimistic about the current White House team. Just under half (49%) of Biden’s party members don’t like the path the country is taking. However, regarding the most intensely courted voting demographic, 71% of Independents consider the United States is going in the wrong direction.
The June 2023 survey looked at public opinion in four areas:
In supporting US global leadership in international affairs, the survey showed some surprising results:
“Despite political polarization in recent years, there is bipartisan agreement on which broad principles should guide US foreign policy … In the abstract, respondents believe that the United States is better served by withdrawing from international affairs and focusing more attention on problems at home, which garners agreement from 65% of Americans, including 53% of Democrats, 70% of Independents, and 75% of Republicans.”
One conclusion is that Americans are becoming more isolationist. As the Reagan Institute’s analysis of the global leadership percentages pointed out, “While many, understandably, believe that domestic problems deserve attention and resolution, they simultaneously believe that the United States should maintain a strong military in addition to promoting international trade and defending human rights abroad.” The seemingly conflicting perspectives indicate the majority of respondents may believe the United States should take a global leadership position but are dismayed by the poor performance of the current foreign policy team.
Further evidence of the survey participants’ belief in the necessity of US leadership is the bipartisan support for a strong fighting force. When asked if military spending should be cut to reduce the US budget deficit, “Increasing the defense budget has the support of 71% of Americans, including 85% of Republicans, 74% of Independents, and 57% of Democrats.” Though this is one data set among many, these statistics should alert fiscal conservatives who may be tempted to see the defense budget as red meat for cutting. Yet, increases in defense spending will meet the cap on expenditures passed in the recent debt limit deal. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) “suggested that the consequences of the spending caps would be severe if kept in place over the long-term,” according to Alexander Bolton’s reporting in The Hill.
(Photo by Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images)
Where US public opinion diverges is on Ukraine. Right now the White House is concerned about what it perceives as eroding support for US assistance to the Kyiv government. “Polls show public support for arming the Ukrainians softening while the two leading Republican presidential candidates are increasingly speaking out against involvement in the war,” The New York Times reported. Nevertheless, the Reagan Institute found that more than 75% of survey takers believe “it is important to the United States that Ukraine wins the war against Russian aggression.” Only about 30% oppose sending monetary aid to Ukraine. While it is impressive that such a high percentage of Americans are in favor of helping Ukraine, the Biden administration has been reluctant to explain why the United States has taken on this responsibility.
In America’s cold war with China, the survey showed the respondents appreciate the need for more effective military and economic competition. “Americans are increasingly prioritizing the security threat from China, with a majority (54%) saying that countering Chinese military power should be a major focus of US foreign policy.” Regarding trade with other Asian countries as a bulwark against the People’s Republic of China, nearly 60% of those surveyed are in favor. If this is indeed representative of Americans in general, the sentiment is moving solidly in the right direction.
Assessments of what Americans think, like the Reagan Institute Summer Survey, are essential. While not dispositive, they provide policymakers with a point of view and guidelines on support for government programs consistent with what citizens consider important. On the other hand, such polls give a cautionary perspective on formulating government policy. It’s a good idea to consider both outcomes.