Gubernatorial races taking place in an off-year usually only draw attention when an upset is expected. But in both New Jersey and Virginia, recent scandals and political missteps have – if not made the contests competitive – at least raised the long-shot prospects of a November surprise.
Looking to replace NJ Governor Phil Murphy are Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill. The Garden State has run blue ever since Bill Clinton edged out George H.W. Bush in 1992, remaining a Democratic bastion that returned just three out of twelve congressional districts to the GOP in 2024.
An average of polling has Sherrill with a clear 5.1% lead over her Republican opponent, but there are significant fluctuations with individual surveys. As Liberty Nation News’ Public Square polling aggregator shows, in recent weeks, the two contenders have on occasion been tied. In fact, New Jersey’s gubernatorial contests are far more bipartisan than its presidential and congressional track record might suggest.
Remember, this is the state that elected Chris Christie for the GOP twice (his second term by more than 20 points!). And Ciattarelli came within three points of toppling Murphy in 2021. And the political demographics have undergone a shift since the last election.
In the last four years, Republican voter registration has increased by an estimated 164,000. With over six million voters in the state, such a figure may seem like a drop in the ocean. Indeed, roughly 38% of residents are registered Democrats, compared to just 25% for the GOP. But the pendulum swing becomes more apparent when we look at the granular level.
Of the 21 counties, 20 saw an uptick in Republican registration. Conversely, Democrats saw their support drop in 14. The math suggests that many of the gains come from the large unaffiliated contingent, which could be enough to make this a highly competitive November race.
Added to the GOP rise in New Jersey are political missteps that could cause further damage to Michele “Mikie” Sherrill’s campaign. It was revealed just a few weeks ago that the Democrat contender was partially embroiled in the Navy’s 1992 “Double E” cheating scandal. A number of students had gained access to a test paper. Some midshipmen benefited directly, and some decided not to inform leadership of their knowledge; Sherrill was in the latter group. Rather than face expulsion, Sherrill was barred from walking at her graduation.
Why should this matter more than 30 years down the line? As Brent Sadler writes at The Heritage Foundation:
“[T]he honor code we all lived by as midshipmen at the U.S. Naval Academy, and are imbued to live our lives by, is simply to not lie, cheat, or steal.
This is what American citizens expect from its naval officers, and it’s one reason why the military is held in high regard and trust. Sherrill’s behavior contributed to the damage done to the reputation of the Naval Academy and its graduates for years.”
But what of the other gubernatorial contest further south?
One might assume that with the current term-limited Virginia governor being a Republican, the GOP may have a better chance of retaining the mansion. But the commonwealth has strong Democrat leanings (having voted blue in presidential races since Barack Obama in 2008), and Glen Younkin’s 2021 victory was a surprise to many.
Vying for the top spot are Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger. Current polling, as per LNN’s polling aggregator, shows Democrat Spanberger with a mighty seven-point advantage, seemingly an insurmountable lead with just three weeks to go in the race. However, individual surveys have been sparse in the wake of a tangential scandal that could seriously impact blue support.
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Running alongside Spanberger for the position of attorney general is Democrat Jay Jones. Recently revealed text messages from Jones include him referring to former VA House Speaker Todd Gilbert, saying:
“If those guys die before me, I will go to their funerals to piss on their graves … Send them out awash in something … Gilbert, Hitler and Pol Pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head … Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time.”
And it got worse, he said of Gilbert’s children that they were “little fascists,” and wished that they would “die in their mother’s arms.”
To be sure, Jones is running a separate race to Spanberger, but the gubernatorial hopeful has refused to say he should step down from the contest and continues to back him for the top role in Virginia justice.
In an age where politicos are denounced and hounded for their associations, a refusal to cut ties tarred her with a highly distasteful brush.
Notably, both Republican candidates, Ciattarelli and Earle-Sears, have so far managed to avoid major scandals. They acquitted themselves well in the gubernatorial debates and have run solid, if uninspiring, campaigns.
Their opponents, however, seem to swerve from one minor disaster to another. Despite the cumulative effects of these gaffes, Spanberger and Sherrill are still leading their respective contests. If the GOP candidates manage to close the gap and win, it will be more a credit to Democrat missteps than a turning of the political tide.