The constant refrain from media on all sides is that the presidential race, now a month and a day from its conclusion, is tighter than a drum, a toss-up, on a razor’s edge – choose your cliche. This widespread belief is almost entirely based on national polls, in which Kamala Harris leads, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average. And surveys in the seven swing states, all but certain to decide the outcome, show a dead heat between Harris and Donald Trump.

Let’s stick to facts, not opinions or uninformed speculation, in considering the possibility of a decisive Trump victory. We start by comparing polls today with those on the same date from four and eight years ago. In 2020, Joe Biden was leading Trump in the popular vote by 7.8% in the RCP average – but a swing of 50,000 votes in three states would have given Trump the victory. In 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 3.2% – she lost, but much like in 2020, a 50,000-vote shift in three states would have resulted in a Clinton presidency. This time around, Harris is up by 2.2.%, meaning she has failed to come within one point of Clinton’s popular vote margin and is 5.6% below Biden’s lead on this date in 2020. This year, Harris and Trump each lead in three swing states and are tied in the most crucial battleground of all, Pennsylvania, where heavily Democratic Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are offset by Republican dominance in the rest of the state. In 2020, on this date, Biden was leading by four points in the Keystone State. None of this bodes well for the vice president. But that raises a central question: Has the electorate undergone notable shifts over the last four years? That brings us to a second factor that should be troublesome for Harris and encouraging for Trump.

The vice president has just launched a far-reaching ad campaign aimed directly at black voters. This indicates her deep concern about the inroads Trump has made with his aggressive outreach to a traditionally overwhelmingly Democratic constituency. As any political consultant will tell you, failing to lock up the necessary support from your most reliable voters this late in the game is an ominous sign. The metrics tell the story. A recent CNN poll showed that 17% of black voters support Trump, more than double the 8% he attracted in 2020. At the same time, two recent surveys showed Trump averaging 39.5% support from another key Democratic constituency, Hispanic voters, a 22% increase from 2020.

Then there is the comprehensive survey conducted by one of the oldest and most reliable polling organizations, Gallup, showing that Republicans have the advantage in eight out of ten indicators of past election outcomes. But none favor the Democrats, and two are tied – not surprising, since the two issues most animating the electorate, the economy and immigration, strongly favor Trump and the GOP. Another poll, by Fox News, shows that almost two-thirds of the country favors “major change,” and that Trump is viewed as the agent of change. Finally, the Democrats’ favorite election guru, Nate Silver, concluded last month that Trump has a 64% chance of victory, while Harris comes in at 36%.

Harris’ momentum, built over her truncated campaign of “joy,” appears to have slowed down or halted. Stubborn inflation, 20% higher prices since the Biden-Harris administration took office, a strike by dockworkers that could have crippled the economy had it lasted much longer, a catastrophic hurricane that leveled a broad swath of two states (and FEMA says it’s running out of money) are adding to an already historically chaotic campaign. That the Middle East is moving ever closer to another full-out war on top of the one in Ukraine adds to the chaos. None of this bodes well for Kamala Harris. Thus, the bottom line for voters is to prepare for another nail-biter while expecting that, in the end, it may well not be as close as the vast majority of pundits anticipate.