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Much ink has already been spilled over how the big, beautiful bill would make permanent many parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. But what of all the stuff that won’t be permanent? While most are either ignoring the issue or haven’t yet caught on, some in Congress, at least, have noticed what the majority seems to be missing. The rest of the big, beautiful bill has an expiration date – the end of 2028 – setting up something of a tax cliff for the final days of Donald Trump’s presidency. And that’s probably by design.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025, in its current form, makes permanent many of the provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that would otherwise expire at the end of this year – even temporarily expanding some of them through 2028 before allowing them to settle back to the new normal established in 2017. But several of the big-ticket items are only good through the end of Trump’s present term.
The president also promised to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime and to allow a deduction for interest paid on vehicle loans. Seniors would also be able to take an additional $4,000 deduction at tax time. But none of these tax breaks will still be here on January 1, 2029.
“There’s a total tax cliff in there,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) told reporters. “There’s about $1.5 trillion worth of taxes that expire in four years, five years, which means what?”
There are a few plausible reasons for the expiration date. One, Rep. Roy alludes to: “In five years, they’ll just keep them going. This is why we end up with the same problem. It is 100 percent a gimmick to have tax cuts you’re putting in place for four or five years.” By saying the cuts aren’t permanent, supporters can argue the cost of the cuts is lower over time because of their short spans. As Rep. Roy points out, however, once tax cuts or other benefits are in place and folks get used to them, it’s hard not to renew them without looking bad.
And that brings up yet another possible reason: the 2028 election. President Trump and many Republicans in Congress campaigned on making the tax cuts in the 2017 bill permanent. The exact same will likely occur in the run-up to the 2028 elections, with Republicans vowing to extend the bevy of benefits added into the big, beautiful bill – themselves the leftover promises of the 2024 campaign trail. Just keep the GOP in power, and they’ll make sure the Democrats can’t make folks start paying taxes on tips and overtime again – and they’ll keep that child tax credit riding high and make sure seniors can still deduct their extra $4,000.
After all, three or four years down the road, qualification for these breaks feels a lot like entitlement. By the 2028 election cycle, calling for taxes on tips or cuts to the senior deduction will sound a lot like threats to defund Social Security – good luck getting elected or re-elected on that side of the fiscal fence.
A handful of lawmakers and policy wonks dislike these temporary measures. “I would prefer those things would be completely off the list,” Tax Foundation President Daniel Bunn told The Hill last year. On the other hand, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) more recently argued: “If it’s good enough to include, let’s make it permanent.”
Still, despite some reluctant Republicans, with sufficient majorities in both chambers of Congress and a willing president, the big, beautiful bill seems destined to succeed. And whatever final form it takes, it’ll likely include these temporary cuts, setting up a potential tax cliff that can be extended out every election year – so long as the party pushing it wins and follows through.