As the deadline looms for Congress to pass a government funding bill, political gamesmanship is not just front and center – it’s the main point. Each side is looking to demonstrate strength to the electorate and gain significant fiscal wins. But with Democratic members seemingly attached to an oppositional doctrine regardless of optics, and the GOP looking to make hay for the 2026 midterms, rapprochement over a shutdown is far from likely.

The stage was set when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) publicly warned the administration that if it went ahead with a further “pocket rescission” of $5 billion of foreign aid cash, Republicans would be “going it alone this fall.” If it was a bluff, it has been called. Congressional Democrats may well refuse to work with the GOP to get funding secured, but there are two aspects they should have already considered.

When the last deadline loomed in March, the New York leader was pilloried by his own party supporters for “not holding Trump to account.” He said on the Senate floor at the time:

“I believe it is my job to make the best choice for the country, to minimize the harms to the American people. Therefore, I will vote to keep the government open and not shut it down … There is nobody in the world, nobody, who wants to shut the government down more than Donald Trump and more than Elon Musk. We should not give it to them.”

Six months later, and Schumer is facing the same situation, only this time he has already spent his accrued goodwill.

Politico notes that “a shutdown could give Trump and his sharp-elbowed budget director, Russ Vought, even more authority to slash away at the federal bureaucracy.” A sentiment echoed by an unnamed Democratic aide, who told the outlet: “We would essentially be handing him even more power …  And who knows when they’ll reopen the government? They don’t even care about the government being open.”

But would a shutdown suit the Trump agenda?

There’s no denying that the president has had a busy second term so far. With a series of major wins, from effectively ending illegal crossings at the border to getting the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed, he has a legislative record that – whether one approves of it or not – displays energy. But what is on the legislative docket between now and the midterms in 2026?

Certainly, Congress will be working on a range of bills, and especially appointments, but the president seems content to try to make laws via his “pen and a phone.” While such executive agency is almost always subject to legal challenges, he has had a fair amount of success at the Supreme Court.

The fact is, this will either be remembered as a Democrat shutdown or a Trump shutdown – with the GOP playing only a secondary role. Concessions on either side will be seen as weakness; everything comes down to the optics. And for Trump, winning the narrative battle has always been his strong suit.