By Paul R. Brian
Joe Biden’s exceedingly poor debate performance against Donald Trump on June 27 has sent the Democratic Party into a tailspin. Party insiders are calling for Biden to step down, and POTUS is emphasizing on social media that he has no plan to do so. But the possibility very much remains, especially with recent news revealing that Biden’s personal physician met with Parkinson’s Disease specialist Dr. Kevin Cannard earlier this year.
If Biden can’t run, the Democratic war chest and victory plan will likely go to Vice President Kamala Harris who, for all her faults, would have the best strategic and funding positioning to carry off a successful run. In the event of a Harris run for the Oval Office, however, the question becomes who she would choose as her running mate.
As Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) recently warned, who Kamala Harris picks as VP could legitimately “change the game” in the upcoming election, especially if she picks a stalwart Midwesterner who can shore up the Democrat’s “blue wall” that crumbled so badly in 2016.
There are five choices that stand out when it comes to a VP for Kamala Harris in a presidential run. These candidates stand out for their electability and for their strategic position in a White House run to nab key electoral votes.
The first is Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who could help shore up support in key swing states in the Midwest. Whitmer is more popular than Biden in Michigan, according to a recent poll by Emerson, and has shown her ability to flip the statehouse to the left.
The second likely option is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who has remarkably high approval ratings, including a January Quinnipiac poll putting him at 59%. This is far higher than Biden’s lackluster 40% approval in Pennsylvania, and it would give Harris a handy edge in seizing the Keystone state’s 19 electoral votes in the general election.
Thirdly we come to former Congressman Tim Ryan of Ohio, who recently openly called for Kamala Harris to be the nominee, saying she is somebody voters can be “excited” about, unlike Biden. Ryan would bring in important votes in the Buckeye State and stand as a counterpoint to potential Trump VP pick JD Vance, who beat out Ryan in a 2022 race for the US senate.
As Georgia Tech Associate Professor of Public Policy Richard Barke noted:
“Another potential contender could be Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who ran for president in 2020 where he emphasized the significance of focusing on working-class voters. [Ryan] is generally seen as a centrist who could appeal to the Midwestern blue-collar electorate.”
The fourth is Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, who has beaten Republicans in two previous highly publicized races and who could stand in for the religious black Southern vote that Harris struggles with. With Georgia potentially up for grabs, Warnock could be a solid choice for Harris and fit the Democratic narrative of prioritizing the prominence of people of color – though the deadline for getting new presidential and vice-presidential nominees on the Georgia ballot (July 9) threatens that potential.
The fifth is former first lady Michelle Obama. As a national celebrity with a popular podcast and a husband who’s still beloved by many Democrats, Obama could step in as part of a dynamic duo, rescuing Harris and buoying her campaign from beside her when Harris gets lost in word salad. The chance of running Obama as VP beside Harris as a way to win the upcoming election shouldn’t be fully discounted.
The clock is ticking rapidly for Democrats, with drop-out dates fast approaching. Although the laws are unclear in some states, the Democrats will lose a number of states if they end up swapping Biden out further down the line. For example, July 9 is the cutoff date for the state of Georgia and the momentum picks up from there, getting costlier and costlier for a swap-out.
It’s clear that, at the latest, Harris would have to choose a running mate before very far into August if she does end up replacing Biden. The Democratic convention is coming up on August 19 in Chicago, and more than half a dozen states will have passed their ballot deadlines by that point. There’s also an earlier roll call being done by the Democrats to conform to Ohio state law about nominee officialization.
Overall, while Biden still insists he’s in it for the long haul, pollsters and pundits are already calculating what would happen in the event of a Harris run. As G. Elliott Morris of 538 explained recently, swapping in Harris leaves the situation fairly similar to with Biden in terms of the chance of winning:
“For the most part, national polls have shown Harris doing about the same as Biden in head-to-head polls against Trump.
“Harris has a slightly higher chance of winning the Electoral College than Biden, but it’s not a significant difference: 38-in-100 versus 35-in-100. On a state-by-state level, Biden looks stronger than Harris in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Harris’s odds are higher than Biden’s in Nevada.”
By Paul R. Brian