Chauncey McLean, head of Future Forward, the main Democratic super PAC for the presidential election, said on Monday morning that the group’s forecasting models had the probability of Biden winning in the single digits before Biden stepped aside in late July.

Speaking to Democratic strategist David Axelrod and Amy Walter, Cook Political Report editor-in-chief, as part of a live taping of their podcast, McLean qualified his assessment by noting they assumed the president had hit his nadir in the polls and would rebound a bit.

As public polls attest, Harris is in a much stronger position than Biden against Trump.

But McLean said that wasn’t a given before she took over.

“When she started, her numbers weren't all that much higher than [Biden’s], because her [favorability] numbers and the president’s [favorability] numbers were pretty close, but then she just saw this dramatic uptick in her fave 10 points higher than when she started,” McLean said. “And I don't think anybody predicted that.”

McLean shared in many Democrats’ optimism about Harris’ candidacy, though he thinks some polling might be too bullish because enthusiastic Democrats are more eager to respond to pollsters than they once were. The race is “tight as a tick,” McLean said.