When Lady Gaga released her latest album, “Mayhem,” it was immediately clear it was pop gold. Fans were thrilled, but more than one pointed out an unsettling bit of context: Lady Gaga hasn’t released this kind of music since the United States was in the middle of a housing crisis.

For weeks, social media users have been declaring different recession indicators that have nothing to do with actual economic measures but just feel right. There’s Lady Gaga writing “weird pop songs again,” a skin care brand selling eggs, and actor Adam Driver starring on a TV show again. The criteria for a recession indicator, according to people on social media, is rather broad: It can be a sign Americans are pinching pennies, a resurgence of a ’00s trend, or simply something that the poster dislikes. Ed Sheeran joined the discourse, responding to a TikTok comment declaring that the British singer-songwriter was “kinda cool now.”

“A recession indicator,” Sheeran responded.

Kelly Deschaine, a 24-year-old who lives in Baltimore, listened to Lady Gaga’s “Mayhem” the morning it came out and immediately wrote on X: “i’ve heard enough lady gaga’s newest album is the biggest recession indicator we could possibly receive.”

″[The album] felt very nostalgic,” Deschaine told HuffPost. “I was like, Oh, the crazy Lady Gaga pop is back. I mean, it’s kind of been back, but, like, really back.”

Also back? Millennials’ beloved skinny jeans and peplum tops. Law school applications are up, possibly because undergrads aren’t sure what kind of job market they’re stepping into. Even athleisure brand Lululemon noted that consumers aren’t spending on pricey yoga pants like they used to.

Lauryn Bivens, a 29-year-old who lives in the Bronx, made a TikTok explaining that her recession indicator is using press-on nails instead of going to the salon for a fresh set of acrylics.

“I just can’t justify paying over $30, but a full set is, like, $90 now, and I just can’t justify that,” Bivens told HuffPost.

It’s still unclear if a recession is imminent. As of March 30, Polymarket, an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, placed the odds at 38%. Earlier this month, UCLA Anderson Forecast declared its first-ever “recession watch” due to President Donald Trump’s promised economic policies, and, according to CNBC, a Deutsche Bank survey found the probability of an economic downturn over the next year is 43%,

Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, told HuffPost that the possibility of a recession is “uncomfortably high and rising” and estimates that there’s a one-third probability of a recession coming in the next year, which is more than double what economists might predict in any given year.

Zandi said the most important aspect to predicting if a recession is coming is consumer confidence, and if The Conference Board’s index falls more than 20 points in a three-month period, then consumers are “losing faith.”

“They’re scared, they’re nervous, they’re running for the bunker, or they’re curtailing their spending, and that is a necessary condition for recession,” Zandi said.

That’s the case for Bivens, who besides opting for applying press-on nails at home instead of going to the nail salon, has taken other precautions in case of a recession and cuts costs where she can.

“I try not to eat out as much anymore,” she said. “It’s just not worth it, to be honest.”

Consumer confidence might be down in part because of what’s going on in Washington, D.C., Zandi said. Deschaine said that’s part of why she’s been trying to save her money.

“I’ve been definitely trying to save my money because of all these ridiculous tariffs that are getting put into place for no fucking reason,” she said. “So definitely trying to cut back on spending unnecessarily and just saving my money.”

Zandi said another “obvious reason” for worry among consumers is that necessities are costing more, like groceries, rent and gas.

“The higher prices have really unnerved many Americans, young and old,” Zandi said.

Both Deschaine and Bivens were just kids when the 2008 economic crisis hit the U.S. Zandi said that wasn’t caused by policy, like what’s happening now, but in both cases, he said “confidence is key.”

“If we suffer a recession, I don’t think it’s going to come anywhere close to the kind of downturn we experienced a generation ago in the global financial crisis,” Zandi said. “So recession is a real risk, but the risk of a wipeout like we experienced in ’08, ’09 is low.”

Still, people on TikTok are offering their tips for preparing for a bad economy. One user advised people to have three to six months of living expenses saved. But others pointed out that information overload from social media might actually be making consumer confidence worse.

“Having TikTok and Instagram is a blessing and a curse for people in their young 20s right now because they know how bad it is and they know how nobody can afford anything, so it makes them a little bit more scared and a little bit more reserved,” TikTok user @the_geriatricmillennial said in a post with more than 10,000 views.

TikTok user @dirtydianalee echoed those views in a post with more than 317,000 views: “In 2008, we didn’t have access to the information that we do now.”