Polling pundit Nate Silver predicts Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.
“She was going to be my first pick, and I can’t conceal that now, right?” Silver told former FiveThirtyEight podcast host Galen Druke in a video posted on Silver’s Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin” on Wednesday.
“I think there’s a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” Druke pointed out, referencing the amount of support the young congresswoman has garnered within her own party.
“In a Yale poll just out this week, AOC has the highest net favorability rating of any of the Democrats that they asked about,” Druke said.
The same poll Druke referenced also shows Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Kamala Harris as highly favored among Democrats.
Druke went on to say that the Democratic primaries will “be a contest for attention,” which Ocasio-Cortez has largely amassed in recent months through her criticism of Elon Musk and President Donald Trump’s agendas.
“The media is kind of obsessed with her, and they’re going to follow her every move, which means she’ll be able to keep the attention on her throughout the primary process,” he said.
Silver agreed with Druke, citing several of Ocasio-Cortez’s advantages over her theoretical opponents, such as her polling numbers, progressive stance, age and understanding of media. However, he did cast doubts on whether Ocasio-Cortez would want to run at all, prompting Druke to double down on the prediction.
Ultimately, both agreed the New York representative would be their first pick for Democratic nominee and considered Ocasio-Cortez’s experience since she first took office.
“You listen to her message today, it’s all about the economy, and she’s really hitting Trump on, I think, his most obvious weakness most quickly, which is the number of billionaires in his Cabinet,” Druke said.
Both Silver and Druke cast their second choice for Democratic presidential nominee as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.).