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Huffington Post
HuffPost
6 Sep 2024


NextImg:Election Forecaster Allan Lichtman Predicts Winner Between Harris And Trump
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Allan Lichtman, who has a near-perfect record of predicting presidential elections over the past 40 years, announced his pick this week for November’s showdown between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.

The American University history professor told The New York Times he analyzes 13 “keys,” including midterm election gains, social unrest, charisma and scandal. The party and candidate to come out on top in seven or more of them is the winner. Lichtman’s prediction system has correctly called almost every presidential election since 1984 — the exception being the results in 2000, according to reports.

If you want to know Lichtman’s pick immediately, keep reading under the Times’ fun video below.

If you want to watch him analyze the election as if it were a race around a track before declaring the victor, stop here and check out the clip:

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The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?

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So who did Lichtman foresee for the White House?

“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” he said. “At least that’s my prediction. But the outcome is up to you. So get out and vote.”

For what it’s worth, Lichtman successfully foretold that Trump would win in 2016 and lose in 2020. But then again, he recently opined that President Joe Biden’s wobbly debate would have “zero” impact and that his withdrawal from the race would be “misguided.”

It seems even a forecaster hyped as a “Nostradamus” by some media outlets isn’t perfect.

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Consider supporting HuffPost starting at $2 to help us provide free, quality journalism that puts people first.

Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.

The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?

Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.

The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. We hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.

Support HuffPost