Channel migrant crossings are on course to hit a record high this year, according to damning new figures from top data scientist Dr Richard Wood.

Dr Wood has predicted arrivals could soar to 50,000 in 2025, breaking a record set in 2022, and representing a 20 per cent increase on last year's numbers.

The data scientist, who boasts a PhD in mathematics and has published 50 peer-reviewed academic papers, developed his model based on data from 2020 to 2024.

His approach examines key factors influencing Channel crossings, including weather and sea conditions, Government policies, and illegal migration patterns into the EU over the past five years.

Britain can expect 'between 45,000 and 50,000 crossings this year,' Dr Wood said

The modelling reveals how these complex factors interact, with weather playing a particularly crucial role in determining viable crossing days and migrant numbers.

And it has already demonstrated its accuracy, with Dr Wood predicting 12,074 migrant arrivals by May 15, while the actual Home Office figure was 12,699 – 31 per cent higher than the same period last year.

If weather conditions remain favourable, he projects the total number of migrants arriving on the South Coast will reach 45,651 this year, virtually matching 2022's record of 45,755.

"If such a trend continues, we would expect between 45,000 and 50,000 crossings this year," Dr Wood said.

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The record numbers would pile further pressure on Sir Keir Starmer, who has long pledged to "smash the gangs", and just days ago rolled out his new border security command with counter-terror style powers and multi-national agreements.

Dr Wood's research also suggests that Labour's General Election victory in July 2024 may have contributed to increased crossings, estimating "an additional 4,995 small-boat migrant arrivals" for the remainder of 2024.

But the Home Office has rejected his analysis.

A spokesman said the department is "getting on with the job of tackling the criminal smuggling gangs, rather than engaging in academic hypothesising".

Record numbers would pile further pressure on Sir Keir Starmer, who has long pledged to 'smash the gangs'

Dr Wood said his "predictive modelling" and accurate forecasts could enable better responses to migrant crossings in the future.

"Refusing asylum claims appears to have a strong deterrent effect: future numbers of migrants can be reduced by refusing more asylum claims now," he said.

"For a problem attracting so much political and security concern, modelling can be a real asset," Dr Wood concluded, before adding the Government could "better calibrate the package of deterrents within its purview."