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Yasser Abu Shabab, commander of a Gaza-based armed group calling itself “al-Quwwat al-Sha’abiyyah” (The People’s Forces), has publicly asked the United States and other international powers to grant his faction administrative control over Gaza instead of Hamas. And Israel is entertaining the idea.

But we’ve seen this game before.

An Islamist group grows too powerful. The world panics. So, someone, usually a Western government or a regional power, backs a “less dangerous” actor to replace them. A warlord. A tribal enforcer. A criminal turned savior. And for a brief moment, it looks like control has returned.

Until the new face starts doing the same old things with a different logo.

Today, that face is Yasser Abu Shabab. Once a Hamas prisoner, now a tribal militia boss commanding armed checkpoints in Gaza. He claims to be protecting aid trucks. Israel sees him as a tool to undermine Hamas, just like it once saw Hamas as a tool to undermine the PLO.

Some even whisper the words “alternative governance.”

But let’s ask the critical question: Is this a solution or just a shiny new Band-Aid on a festering wound?

Who Is Yasser Abu Shabab?

To some, he’s a strongman with tribal authority. To others, he’s a warlord with a rap sheet. But one thing is clear: Yasser Abu Shabab didn’t rise to power by representing the people of Gaza. He rose by filling a vacuum of violence.

Born in 1993 in the eastern district of Rafah, Abu Shabab comes from the Tarabin Bedouin tribe, a transnational clan with roots in Gaza, Sinai, and southern Israel. He dropped out of school early, reportedly involved in smuggling drugs and cigarettes, and in 2015, was arrested by Hamas and sentenced to 25 years in prison for trafficking.

But like many others, he escaped when Israel bombed Gaza’s prisons in the early stages of the war after October 7, 2023. And almost immediately, he reemerged not as a fugitive, but as a self-appointed commander of a new militia, the so-called “The People’s Forces” (al-Quwwat al-Sha’abiyyah).

Since then, Abu Shabab has seized armed control over parts of Rafah, claiming to:

In reality, his fighters have been caught looting dozens of aid trucks, running unauthorized checkpoints, and reportedly working in coordination with Israeli forces, especially near the Kerem Shalom crossing.

Even he admits some of it:

“About 50 trucks were looted. But that’s a small number compared to what Hamas did. We did what we could.”
—Yasser Abu Shabab, in an interview with Ynet News

The optics are clear: a former criminal now commands men with guns, polices aid routes, and demands international recognition, all while presenting himself as Gaza’s new fix.

Sound familiar? That’s precisely how parts of Nigeria collapsed when warlords and ex-criminals were armed under the illusion of local control. The results weren’t peace. They were permanent instability.

If he has what it takes, why aren’t his areas free and thriving?

Is he really cleaning up Hamas’s mess? Or just repositioning himself as the next armed authority in a place where the people never got to vote?

The Israeli Strategy Undermining Hamas by Arming Clans

To understand why Yasser Abu Shabab is being taken seriously, you have to understand Israel’s tactical mindset, especially in this phase of the war.

With international pressure mounting, Hamas still embedded in tunnels, and the humanitarian crisis worsening by the hour, Israel is looking for local muscle to fill the vacuum. Not elected leaders. Not civil society. Just anyone with guns who isn’t flying a green Hamas flag.

So far, Abu Shabab fits the criteria.

“We’ve activated local clans who oppose Hamas.”
—Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, July 2025

Abu Shabab’s fighters—the so-called People’s Forces—now control checkpoints, guard supply trucks, and patrol parts of Rafah. Videos show them operating freely in IDF-controlled zones, often just miles from Israeli military positions. Aid organizations report that convoys must “coordinate” with his men to get through certain areas.

And that’s not accidental. It’s strategic.

For Israel, this is a way to:

But this isn’t the first time Israel has played this game. In fact, it’s the same playbook they used in the 1980s when Hamas was quietly encouraged to grow as a religious counterweight to the secular PLO.

Back then, the thinking was: “The enemy of my enemy can be managed.”

We all know how that turned out.

Just like before, the plan prioritizes immediate leverage over long-term consequences.

Abu Shabab may be anti-Hamas, but that doesn’t make him pro-civilization. He isn’t an elected leader. He isn’t building institutions. He isn’t even trusted by his own tribe, who publicly disowned him. His fighters carry guns, not ballots, not books, not principles.

But for now, Israel sees him as useful.

And that’s the problem.

When Warlords Fill the Vacuum

You don’t fix a broken state by handing it over to the nearest guy with a weapon. But that’s exactly what keeps happening in Gaza, in Libya, in Syria, in Nigeria, in Afghanistan.

And every time, the result is a fractured society held together by fear, not governance.

Libya is ruled by factions that call themselves “authorities” but operate like criminal cartels.
Afghanistan saw U.S.-backed warlords run roughshod over villagers until the Taliban returned and said, “We’ll clean this up.”

Syria replaced Assad-controlled zones with HTS checkpoints, Sharia patrols, and public executions under the illusion of “liberation.”

Everywhere warlords fill a vacuum, they don’t build nations. They build fiefdoms.
And what they govern isn’t a country. It’s an extortion zone.

Now look at Yasser Abu Shabab.

His men:

And yet somehow, he’s being floated as “a stabilizing force” because he isn’t officially Hamas. That’s not stability. That’s Stockholm syndrome, cheering for the man with the smaller stick just because the last one was bigger.

“He loots aid trucks and plays gatekeeper with Israeli blessing.”
—Al Jazeera analyst, July 2025

The warlord model always promises order. But what it actually delivers is a privatized version of oppression still armed, still unaccountable, still dangerous.

Israel may believe it’s weakening Hamas.
In reality, they’re building the next power that will one day turn on them, the same way Hamas once turned on Fatah… and the way Hezbollah turned on Lebanon.

Islamic by Culture And Not Free

Let’s be clear: Abu Shabab is not Hamas.

But that doesn’t mean he’s the opposite of Hamas.

He’s not launching rockets. He’s not quoting Quranic justification for jihad. He doesn’t talk about a Caliphate or the destruction of Israel. But don’t mistake that for democracy.

His militia still prays. Still upholds tribal-Islamic customs. Still operates in a deeply patriarchal, Islamic society.

This is Sharia-lite, enforced not by clerics but by clan enforcers who happen to carry AKs instead of Hadith books.

And that’s the real danger. Because the West and even Israel have a bad habit of thinking:

“If he’s not quoting the Quran while killing people, maybe he’s the moderate we’ve been waiting for.”

Just because someone opposes an Islamist doesn’t mean they aren’t dangerous themselves. Sometimes they’re just better at PR.

We’ve seen this delusion before:

MEK vs. IRGC
The Mojahedin-e Khalq opposes the Islamic Republic of Iran. Western voices call them “freedom fighters.” But MEK is a cult with a body count, responsible for killing Americans, joining Saddam during the Iran–Iraq war, and psychologically abusing its own members.

They didn’t bring liberty. They just brought new chains.

HTS vs. Assad
Assad’s regime was a dictatorship soaked in blood. But when his grip loosened, the void wasn’t filled with democracy; HTS, the rebranded face of al-Qaeda, filled it. In Idlib, they enforce Sharia law, crush dissent, and rule with fear.

Hamas vs. PLO
And perhaps the most relevant: Israel once saw Hamas as a counterbalance to the secular PLO. A useful pressure valve. A faction that could fragment the Palestinian front.

Today, that “counterbalance” is launching rockets, murdering civilians, and dragging Gaza into theocratic ruin.

So now, the solution is… what? Back Abu Shabab because he’s not Hamas?

“The enemy of my enemy is still carrying a weapon. And eventually, he’ll point it at you too.”
—Aynaz Anni Cyrus

We’re not witnessing peacebuilding. We’re watching evil be rotated like tires because no one has the courage to strip the whole vehicle for parts and start again.

Israel may believe it’s weakening Hamas by empowering Yasser Abu Shabab. It may even be right in the short term, but short-term tactics have a long-term cost. And history has already written this chapter.

What’s happening in Gaza is power-brokering through proxies. It’s outsourcing chaos to the guy who hasn’t turned on you yet. It’s swapping out the butcher without checking what’s in his hand.

And worst of all, it’s being done in the name of “stability.”

But stability built on tribal thrones, looted aid trucks, and unaccountable guns is political duct tape. It’s delaying the inevitable collapse by handing power to the next man willing to kill for it.

If this is the future of Gaza, then it’s the past in disguise.

You don’t get democracy by funding drug lords.
You don’t get peace by empowering the next war.
And you don’t protect civilians by putting them under a different kind of gun.

If this is the plan for the “new Gaza,” it looks a lot like the old one with a fresh PR team and blood on the same streets.