Primary polling this far out is practically worthless, but it does measure the pulse of the party. Here’s where the Emerson College poll says things stand in the pulse of the Democrats.

Kamala lingered as the frontrunner for a while, but most people, including me, were skeptical about her sustainability. Indeed, there are noises that Kamala will run for governor of California which likely puts her out of the running in 2028.

The race is still wide open and the frontrunners are still barely in the single digits, but Buttigieg appears to be rising, Newsom is up while Kamala has dropped down. I won’t bore you with the percentages because it only matters so much at this stage but it does suggest that Buttigieg is becoming a player and that Newsom’s riots worked.

Buttiieg was somewhat unique in that he was always planning to run. He maintained a PAC even while serving in the Biden administration. He has a base of wealthy backers who love the idea of the first gay president. But he’s also got a ceilling as we’ve seen before.  And his negatives, from his track record as ‘mayor’ to his ineptitude as Secretary of Transportation, are huge.

While it’s still early, it’s starting to seem as if Kamala will no longer be a player in 2028, but Buttigieg will.