Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: Burundi’s ex-prime minister sentenced to jail, Britain’s Rwanda asylum plan passes first hurdle, and China’s relaxation of tariffs for African exporters.

Chad is holding a constitutional referendum on Sunday, the outcome of which could further destabilize the Sahel. Voters will choose to accept or reject a new constitution that opponents say is not so different from the old dictatorship’s constitution, which concentrated power in the head of state.

The ballot, which was organized by junta leader Gen. Mahamat Idriss Déby, favors a unitary state over the federalist option preferred by Chad’s more than 300 opposition parties.

Political analysts Daniel Eizenga and Katie Nodjimbadem described the referendum as the latest step by Déby to “stage-manage” an ostensibly democratic transition and maintain his family’s “dynasty” when he runs for presidential elections next year.

In October, Washington said it had shared concerns with the junta that the recommendations from the national dialogue constituted “a monopoly of power in the incumbent executive branch.”

The proposed new document would continue the legacy of his father, former President Idriss Déby Itno, who—during his more than three decades of totalitarian rule—reworked the constitution each time his two-term limit was up.

In a move backed by France, Déby took office and suspended the constitution after Itno’s death in May 2021, which came in battle while fighting rebels. Pro-democracy protests last October, which coincided with the deadline of Déby’s promised 18-month transition, were violently crushed. Police killed an estimated 128 people and injured more than 500. Hundreds were subsequently imprisoned for “unauthorized gathering.”

Back then, Déby’s transition timetable hinged on an inclusive national dialogue focusing on a new constitution and political reform. Convened in August 2022, organizers were handpicked by Déby and had limited opportunity for genuine dialogue with opposition groups. The outcome was a two-year extension of Déby’s transitional government and a provision making him eligible to run in future elections. A Commission for the Organization of the Constitutional Referendum set up in January was also made up of ruling party members.

Some opposition groups have asked Chadians to boycott or vote no in the referendum. They argue that Chad’s unitary state is “a dynastic system” that has failed to improve the country, and that a federation would allow for more autonomous development across different regions. Rights groups have accused the junta of intimidating and silencing the opposition and media ahead of Sunday’s referendum.

A scenario resembling recent events in nearby Gabon is possible in Chad. As the Economist reports, “a palace coup may be a greater threat to Mr Déby than the ballot box. … His half-brothers almost certainly have their own presidential aspirations. He has also ruffled feathers by retiring a slew of generals.”

Déby is facing multiple threats. In neighboring Sudan, he is accused of allowing the United Arab Emirates to transport supplies via Chad to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Members of Chad’s ruling inner circle, including Déby’s late father, come from the non-Arab Zaghawa ethnic group, which makes up a small percentage of Chad’s total population. The government’s alleged alliance with the UAE has put Déby on a collision course with the Zaghawa elite. Chad’s politically powerful clan expected Déby to support Darfur’s ethnic Zaghawa militias in fighting the RSF for targeting and killing non-Arab Darfuri communities.

He faces grievances from inside his army as well as threats from rebels backed by Russia. U.S. intelligence agencies warned Chad’s junta that Wagner Group mercenaries were aiding Chadian rebels based in the Central African Republic in an effort to oust Déby.

All of these factors raise the risk of instability for the last remaining French ally in the Sahel. After French troops were kicked out of Mali and Niger, Paris moved its operations against jihadis to Chad. Last month, Hungary’s parliament approved the deployment of up to 200 soldiers to Chad.

The country is a key humanitarian hub for refugees fleeing Sudan’s war, and a hunger crisis is looming because the U.N.’s World Food Program doesn’t have enough money to keep feeding refugees. Almost half a million Sudanese have crossed the border into Chad since a power struggle began in April between Sudan’s rival generals.

Adding to the powder keg, anti-French feeling is on the rise, with increasing calls for French troops to leave. Ordjei Abderahim Chaha, the president of opposition party Rally for Justice and Equality, accused Déby of using French soldiers to keep himself in power. Protests erupted in September after a French army nurse shot dead a Chadian soldier who reportedly attacked him with a scalpel at a French military base. Security forces prevented locals from storming the base by opening fire, injuring at least 15 people, including women and children.

As Nodjimbadem wrote last December in Foreign Policy, if Déby “feels unafraid to rule with impunity, then it could be because the international community has let him. Mahamat, like his father, evades retribution thanks to Chad’s reputation as a bulwark of stability.”

The world has witnessed the end result of similar scenarios that have played out across Africa over the past two years. The tolerance of undemocratic regimes by Africa’s regional bodies, as well as by international governments, has facilitated outright authoritarianism through coups that have become nearly impossible to reverse.

Friday, Dec. 15: South Africa celebrates the country’s Rugby World Cup championship.

Saturday, Dec. 16: Madagascar holds an inauguration of President Andry Rajoelina for a third term.

Sunday, Dec. 17: Chad holds a referendum on a new constitution.

Monday, Dec. 18: Egypt announces presidential election results.

Wednesday, Dec. 20: The Democratic Republic of the Congo holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Congo-Rwanda tensions. With an election campaign in full swing, the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi compared his Rwandan counterpart to Adolf Hitler in the latest public spat between the two countries.

Tshisekedi said that since Paul Kagame “wanted to behave like Adolf Hitler by having expansionist aims, I promise he will end up like Adolf Hitler” and added that Kagame had “met his match, someone who is determined to stop him and protect his country.” Tshisekedi, who is running for a second term, made the comments on Friday at an election campaign rally in Bukavu, close to the Rwandan border. He has accused Rwanda multiple times of backing March 23 Movement rebels in eastern Congo, which Kigali denies. A spokesperson for the Rwandan government posted on social media that the Congolese president’s comments were “a loud & clear threat.”

Burundi ex-PM jailed. Burundi’s Supreme Court sentenced former Prime Minister Alain-Guillaume Bunyoni to life in prison. Bunyoni was found guilty on Friday of multiple charges, including attempting to kill Burundi’s president, Evariste Ndayishimiye, and attempting a coup. He served as prime minister from mid-2020 until September 2022, when he was sacked, days after Ndayishimiye warned of a “coup” plot.

Bunyoni’s trial started in September this year, and his alleged crimes also included using witchcraft to “threaten the life of the head of state,” according to Barron’s. Bunyoni pleaded not guilty to all charges and said he should be acquitted because of a lack of evidence. Public prosecutors did not state when he committed the crimes. The former minister was a close ally of the U.S.-sanctioned former President Pierre Nkurunziza, who died in office in 2020. Nkurunziza attempted to run for a third term, withdrew Burundi from the international criminal court so he wouldn’t be investigated, and closed down the country’s U.N. human rights office.

Rwanda asylum deal. British lawmakers on Tuesday approved a new bill to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda. The bill still needs approval next year from Britain’s House Of Lords. The U.K. Supreme Court had ruled that a previous version of the policy was unlawful because Rwanda was not a safe country for refugees. The new treaty declared Rwanda a safe country in an effort to circumvent the court decision. According to British lawyers, it is likely to face legal challenges in the European Court of Human Rights as well as in domestic courts, which may find the bill unconstitutional because it sidesteps the Supreme Court judgement.

So far, the U.K. government has paid the Rwandan government 240 million pounds (about $300 million), but no asylum-seekers have yet been sent to the country. Another 50 million pounds ($63 million) is due to be handed over in April, according to a letter sent from Permanent Secretary Matthew Rycroft to U.K. ministers.

An easier avenue would have been for the U.K. government to strike a deal with a more democratic African country, which it had tried to do but faced rejection. The U.K. had reportedly been in talks with at least five African countries, including Morocco and Nigeria. Last January, following reports in British media that asylum-seekers could be sent to Ghana, Accra released a statement that it rejects a prospective immigration deal with the U.K. “and does not intend to consider any such operation in the future.”

Beijing announced that there would be no tariffs for 98 percent of goods imported from six African countries starting on Dec. 25.

According to the statement published by state media, the exemption will apply to taxable products from Angola, Gambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, Mali, and Mauritania. The list does not include Africa’s top exporter to China which was South Africa as of 2021. Angola is the continent’s second-largest exporter to China, followed by Congo.

Angola’s tariff-free goods will include coffee, fruit, seafood, and spices, while Congo can export coffee, palm oil, rubber, cotton, and cocoa, reports the South China Morning Post. There has been increased pressure on Beijing from African leaders to open up market access and rebalance a partnership in which China exports $164.49 billion worth of goods to Africa but only receives $117.51 billion in African imports.

• How Will This War End? How Can the Next One be Prevented? by Zaha Hassan, Daniel C. Kurtzer, Omar M. Dajani, Diana Buttu, Peter R. Mansoor, Daniel Levy, Ehud Olmert, Eugene Kontorovich, and Elliott Abrams
• The Global Credibility Gap, by Jared Cohen and Ian Bremmer 
• Was Henry Kissinger Really a Realist? by Stephen M. Walt

India’s toxic battery industry. Indian-run battery recycling plants in Africa are poisoning the air and ground for locals, according to an investigation by the Examination, Cameroon’s Museba Project, and Ghana Business News. The lack of legislation requiring factories to adopt safe practices in the Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Senegal, Kenya, and Ghana has led to dangerous levels of lead and toxic runoff in densely populated areas where the factories operate.

Sports gambling in Nigeria. In Rest of World, Ope Adetayo reports that experts are calling on the Nigerian government to put in tighter controls on sports betting. According to the report, social media influencers are driving young Nigerians into extreme debt and, in some cases, to suicide as a result of online sports gambling.