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Conventional wisdom holds that the U.S. presidential election will have limited impacts for U.S.-India relations because there is strong bipartisan support in Washington for partnership with New Delhi. In effect, the relationship will be fine, no matter who wins.
That is largely correct—but while the election won’t affect the trajectory of the relationship, it could have implications for the nature of the relationship.
In recent years, technology and clean energy have become major areas of bilateral cooperation. That could change if Donald Trump returns to the White House, given the hard line that he has taken on export controls and his not-so-enthusiastic views about renewables. If elected, Kamala Harris would likely mirror the views of her current boss on technology and clean energy, meaning that they would remain central areas of focus.
Areas of tension could change, too. Trump’s frequent complaints about India’s tariff policies—including those he has voiced on the campaign trail—suggest that trade could become contentious, as it was during his administration. But his views on the war in Ukraine—he is much less critical of Moscow than Harris is—could make Russia less of a minefield for the U.S.-India relationship.
Many Indians believe that the current biggest tension point—the U.S. allegation that India’s government was involved in a foiled murder-for-hire plot against a Sikh separatist in New York—would recede if Trump returns. But given Trump’s nationalism, it is hard to imagine that he would stay quiet about transnational repression on U.S. soil.