September 9, 2025, 2:53 PM View Comments ()

The narrative widely shared by the Israeli and foreign media about the war in Gaza is that the Israeli public opposes the government’s newest plan to seize control of Gaza City and that it wants the conflict to be brought to an end. Nearly two years of constant fighting have exhausted the army, and Hamas has been all but defeated. The public sees no point in mounting yet another assault—it wants the hostages and the troops to come home. Even the army wants a deal with Hamas that would end the war.

The reality, however, is more complicated and goes a long way to explaining why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to move forward with the operation, not only defying public opinion and the views of army chief Eyal Zamir but also unprecedented international condemnation of the war. Even as Israelis want out of the war, a minority on the far right has pushed the issue of annexation of Gaza, expulsion of its Palestinian population, and settling of Israelis there into the mainstream of political discourse. Meanwhile, it is maneuvering the army into doing its bidding.

Polls do indeed show that a majority of Israelis prefer reaching a deal with Hamas that would trade hostages still held in Gaza for a cease-fire and ultimately end with Israel’s withdrawal from the strip. One poll taken by Agam Labs in August, for instance, found that 74 percent of the Israeli public favored a deal (among Israeli Jews, 68 percent). Other polls taken by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) asking Israeli Jews about what should happen to Gaza when the fighting ends show that about half think it should be turned over to some kind of government of Palestinian technocrats or to the Palestinian Authority.

But the INSS polls also show that there is a large and arguably growing number of Israeli Jews who oppose turning Gaza over to Palestinian or Arab rule of any kind. A little less than a fifth see that taking the form of a prolonged Israeli military occupation. But even more support the idea of building settlements, presumably under Israeli rule. This group is still a minority, but it is a growing one: INSS polls show that in December, when asked their preference among a menu of “day-after” options for Gaza, 22 percent of Israeli Jews supported building settlements; in May, the last time the question was asked, that number had grown to 28.5 percent. Another poll taken in late August by the Israel Democracy Institute, which asked the question in a binary form of support or opposition to settling Gaza, found a much higher level of support among Jews of 40 percent.

The number of Israelis actively pursuing Israeli rule in Gaza is tiny. Rallies taking place on the Gaza border calling for settlements (with a few participants sometimes stealing into Gaza itself in a symbolic act) generally number in the hundreds. By comparison, the routine protests against the war drew tens of thousands, and in mid-August, they even reached perhaps an estimated 500,000. But in the Israeli political constellation, those numbers aren’t necessarily a true indicator of the balance of power.

Among ordinary Israelis, the majority expressing support for settling Gaza probably do so because they think it will enhance Israel’s security and/or serve as an act of revenge for the Hamas massacre of Oct. 7, 2023. But that is not how the messianic far right justifies Israeli occupation, annexation, and settlement. The far right has never succeeded in winning over large numbers of Israelis to its ideology, which holds that settlement and annexation fulfill the biblical commandments. But it has taken a big first step in that direction by mainstreaming its agenda.

It has done that by acquiring governmental power far out of proportion to its numbers. In the 2022 election, the two far-right parties running under a single ticket captured just 10.8 percent of the vote. If current polls are correct, they would win far fewer votes if elections were held today. Nevertheless, with their ever-present threat of quitting the government, their hold over Netanyahu is powerful and this summer became all but absolute after the coalition’s ultra-Orthodox parties quit. Either of the two far-right parties—Religious Zionism or Otzma Yehudit—could single-handedly bring down the government and force Netanyahu into elections, which polls show he is destined to lose.

That has given carte blanche to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who in his second role as minister in the Defense Ministry is responsible for civilian affairs in the West Bank has been methodologically tightening Israel’s grip there. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, meanwhile, has exploited his control over the national police to give extremist settlers a free hand to engage in anti-Palestinian violence.

Except when speaking to its voter base of true believers, the messianic right hides its true motivations behind a facade of national security, to which other Israelis are receptive. The narrative says that Palestinians are determined to destroy Israel, that a Palestinian state therefore poses an existential danger, and that the only solution is to build more settlements to ensure that never happens. Since Oct. 7, they have sold that story as the reason Israel must never leave Gaza. The corollary is that Israel must expel the 2 million Palestinians living there and repopulate the strip with settlers, who were forced to leave when Israel withdrew from Gaza 20 years ago.

This vision for the future of Gaza has gotten some backing from the White House in the form of a blueprint for the strip’s reconstruction, apparently developed by Israelis and Americans jointly and leaked to the Washington Post last week. A more detailed version of the notorious “Gaza Riviera” plan that U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled in February, the blueprint envisages a high-tech tourism paradise arising from the rubble. On paper, Palestinians would have the option of retaining their property rights and returning home to a “self-governing” Gaza once construction is complete, but the “Gaza Riviera” doesn’t seem to be designed with their needs in mind. No mention is made of settlers or Israeli rule, but the plan as outlined would certainly open a door for both by first emptying Gaza of many of its Palestinian residents and giving Israel security control.

The model of “invasion, expulsion, and settlement” is being played out in the West Bank, albeit in a somewhat different order. Israeli settlements there, the oldest of which date back to shortly after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, are well established and now expanding at an unprecedented rate, while renegade ones without government approval are being legalized ex post facto. The most extremist settlers, with the tacit backing of the great majority of more moderate ones, regularly stage violent attacks on Palestinians with the evident aim of expelling them from their land. With military rule long a fact and the settlements firmly rooted, all that remains is expulsion and annexation. The latter was reportedly the subject of recent Israeli security cabinet deliberations.

It is against this background that the planned assault on Gaza City is occurring. The army last week began calling up a massive 60,000 reservists to help with the operation, and Gaza City is already under limited attack. Turnout has reportedly been poor, although not too much should be read into this. Some reservists are no doubt refusing to report in protest, but the main reason is simply fatigue—many have done hundreds of days of service since Oct. 7 at the cost of their family lives, businesses, careers, and studies. Still, except for a minority on the right who accept the security argument or believe in annexation and settlement, most think that the war is being fought to save Netanyahu’s government by assuaging the far right. Many of them are reporting anyhow, if for no other reason than not to let down their comrades.

But in agreeing to fight another day, they are doing the messianic right’s work. Netanyahu is refusing to even consider a hostage cease-fire deal, which the far right naturally opposes as an obstacle to its goals in Gaza. Zamir, meanwhile, is warning that the Gaza City operation will lead to an open-ended occupation. For the messianic right, that’s not a risk—it’s an opportunity. As it is, Gaza is for the most part an uninhabitable ruin that will take years to rebuild, leaving many Palestinians little choice but to leave. Invading and occupying Gaza City will turn even more of the strip into a humanitarian disaster zone and keep the army mired there. Thus, the road to settlement and annexation is being paved by soldiers who don’t believe in either and by a prime minister determined to remain in power at all costs.