So far, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has stacked his cabinet with China hawks, with one notable exception in Elon Musk. The incoming team’s track record on China offers some clues as to where the Trump administration might take China policy come January, and where clashes might emerge.
Secretary of State — Marco Rubio
Rubio has long held the reputation as one of Congress’s fiercest critics of Beijing. As a senator, he has pushed forward legislation to bolster U.S. security vis-à-vis Beijing, including banning the use of Chinese telecommunications equipment in the United States. He has also been an advocate for strengthening U.S. support for Taiwan.
On human rights, Rubio has pushed back against repression in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, cosponsoring the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act in 2021. These efforts got him sanctioned by Beijing twice in 2020, along with other U.S. officials. Unless that decision is reversed, he will be the first secretary of state to face the awkward situation of conducting diplomacy under sanctions that prevent him from traveling to China.
Although Rubio has described the U.S.-China competition as one of “freedom versus totalitarianism” and has approached broader foreign policy through that prism, he has shifted his positions in recent months to better align with Trump—most notably on Ukraine—suggesting that he may also be willing to match the president’s tone on China, even if it is more transactional and less ideological.
National Security Advisor — Mike Waltz
The Florida representative has also been a reliable China hawk on Capitol Hill, who has described the competition between the superpowers as an ideological struggle.
A former Green Beret who served in Afghanistan, Waltz—like Vice President-elect J.D. Vance—has advocated for shifting focus from Ukraine and the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific and increasing defense spending to better equip the United States to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack. “We have not seen this kind of military buildup since Germany in the 1930s,” Waltz told the Atlantic Council in October, referring to China’s growing military strength. “We need to begin focusing the nation on the threat that [China] is.”
In Congress, he has also been outspoken on human rights issues in China and pushed for domestic investment in semiconductors and other advanced technologies to compete with China.
“Mike Waltz has done some really interesting things on China that, at least in my eyes, set him apart from other members on the Hill,” said Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow in Indo-Pacific studies at the American Foreign Policy Council. Along with Waltz’s work on Taiwan and Chinese influence within the United States, “[H]e has done the really nonglamorous but important work of advocating for political prisoners inside of China. He takes it very seriously, and he’s quite hawkish on Beijing.”
Secretary of Defense — Pete Hegseth
Hegseth, a Fox News host and military veteran who served in Afghanistan and Iraq, does not have much of a record to comb on China, as he has never held public office. His surprise selection elicited criticism across Washington about his lack of qualifications.
As a media personality, Hegseth has aired his concerns about the weakness of the U.S. military as Beijing invests in ramping up its forces. “China is building an army specifically dedicated to defeating the United States of America, that is their strategic outset,” he said on the Shawn Ryan Show, referring to China’s development of hypersonic weapons in particular. He also referred to China’s economic and cultural leverage over the United States, saying, “They have a full-spectrum, long-term view of not just regional but global domination, and we have our heads up our asses.”
Department of Government Efficiency — Elon Musk
Musk is perhaps the biggest wildcard when it comes to the administration’s China policy. The tech mogul’s official role as co-lead of the new Government Efficiency Department doesn’t directly intersect with China, but as a close Trump advisor and donor, he has already been playing a much bigger role in foreign policy than his title suggests.
Musk will bring a controversial history with China to the administration. His electric vehicle (EV) company Tesla opened a “gigafactory” in Shanghai with the Chinese government’s blessing in 2019—the first foreign automotive company that wasn’t required to form a joint venture with a Chinese counterpart.
As FP’s James Palmer wrote this week, “Musk has walked the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) line on issues such as Taiwan and Xinjiang and described himself as ‘kind of pro-China.’” On Chinese social media, people have discussed the idea that Musk could be the Henry Kissinger of this era in U.S.-China relations, helping bring the two countries together.
Given his business interests in China, experts in Washington have also speculated about whether Musk might seek to dial back Trump’s plan to wage a new trade war with China. Musk has opposed U.S. tariffs on Chinese EVs.
Environmental Protection Agency Administrator — Lee Zeldin
Former New York Rep. Lee Zeldin spent four years on active duty in the U.S. Army, including a deployment to Iraq, and is currently an officer in the U.S. Army Reserves. He also spent eight years on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Although Zeldin, as head of the EPA, is unlikely to have much of a role in China policy in the administration, it is notable that he will be coming from his current role as the chair of the China policy initiative at the America First Policy Institute, a think tank closely linked to Trump. He was appointed to the role in September.
Trump has yet to announce a number of key appointees that will play a strong role in determining the future of U.S.-China relations, including secretary of commerce and treasury secretary—two roles that have taken on a much stronger China national security focus in recent years—and U.S. trade representative, a critical role in the waging of Trump’s second trade war. A big question is where Trump’s top trade czar from his first term, Robert Lighthizer, will land.
Although these appointments will certainly influence the direction of China policy, experts have emphasized that the picks so far send a clear sign: Loyalty matters above all else, and Trump will be the ultimate voice on China. “It’s like we are in [Chinese President] Xi Jinping land. What matters is what Xi says and what he writes. I think the same is going to be true for the Trump administration,” said Elizabeth Economy, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, at an International Crisis Group panel last week.
This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage of the Trump transition. Follow along here.