On May 14, Turkish voters will go to the polls to elect a new president in what is one of the most important elections of 2023. Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained his grip on power for 20 years. But, in recent months, an economic downturn and a deadly earthquake in the country have chipped away at confidence in his administration. According to the latest polling, Turkey’s united opposition poses an unprecedented challenge to Erdogan’s rule.

With Turkey’s election a week away, we’ve compiled five essential reads that provide the necessary historical and geopolitical context to understand the stakes of the vote. The essays below examine how Erdogan has reshaped Turkish politics, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s chances, and more. And for a deep dive into the election, check out our recent FP Live podcast episode, where FP’s Ravi Agrawal and two experts on Turkish politics, FP’s Steven A. Cook and Gonul Tol, discuss what the election results might mean for rest of the world.—Chloe Hadavas

What Happens When a Turkish President Loses an Election? No One Knows.

Erdogan has few role models for how to peacefully concede power, Reuben Silverman writes.

Turkey’s Elections Won’t Be Free or Fair

But the opposition could still win, Nate Schenkkan and Aykut Garipoglu write.

What if Kemal Kilicdaroglu Wins Turkey’s Election?

It seems that only an act of God could dislodge President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Maybe the Feb. 6 earthquake was just that, FP’s Steven A. Cook writes.

Turkey’s Opposition Can’t Win Without the Working Class

Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s abandonment of the left and his embrace of allies’ neoliberal economics could cost him the election, Halil Karaveli writes.

6 Books to Understand Turkey

FP contributors’ top titles to make sense of the country ahead of its most important election.