Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits China for the first time since 2018, search efforts are underway after a deadly earthquake in eastern Afghanistan, and Bangladesh sets a timeline for national elections.
In China, Modi Seeks to Ease Tensions
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China on Sunday and Monday for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders’ summit, where he met Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders vowed to view each other as partners rather than rivals, and Modi said that he and Xi “reaffirmed our commitment to cooperation.”
Modi’s trip, his first to China in seven years; the leaders’ effusive words; and the warm body language between the two is a striking development. Just five years ago, a deadly border clash between India and China in Ladakh plunged relations to their lowest level in decades.
It’s tempting to conclude, as some observers have, that deteriorating U.S.-India relations (particularly the 50 percent tariffs recently slapped on India) prompted New Delhi to patch things up with Beijing. In reality, Modi’s visit is the culmination of a nearly year-long effort between the two sides to ease tensions. The state of U.S.-India ties just gives New Delhi a strong reason to accelerate this detente.
Soon after the Ladakh clash, India and China began a recurring military-to-military dialogue to ease border tensions. But indications of a thaw began in earnest when border talks picked up last summer. Around the same time, India’s chief economic advisor spoke about the importance of bringing more Chinese investment into India, which had declined after the conflict in Ladakh.
In October 2024, India and China concluded a border deal that resumed patrols. In January, the two sides agreed to work toward resuming direct flights, and in March—before U.S.-India ties went south—Modi declared that the border was normalized and called for broader cooperation.
To be sure, the shift in the U.S.-India relationship has created economic and strategic incentives for New Delhi to reduce strain with Beijing. With high U.S. tariffs severely curtailing its access to one of its biggest export markets, India will naturally want to scale up its already-robust commercial relations with China. And amid uncertainty about U.S. willingness to partner with India to counter Chinese power, New Delhi has good reason to hedge.
U.S. President Donald Trump hasn’t articulated a clear policy toward China in his second term. At times, the administration has signaled a desire to pursue its own detente with Beijing. As a result, the United States may not be terribly bothered by increasing civility between India and China.
At any rate, the notion of an India-China reset shouldn’t be overstated: The situation remains tense along much of their disputed border, which is a major source of mistrust. China retains a deep alliance with Pakistan, while India’s relations with its rival and neighbor reached a low point after a conflict in May, during which Pakistan deployed Chinese-made weapons.
India and China also have fundamental disagreements, including the long-standing presence of the Dalai Lama—the spiritual leader of Tibet—in India, India’s growing ties with Taiwan, and Chinese dam-building on shared rivers.
Still, there is a risk that should worry the Trump administration. One thing India and China agree on is multipolarity and the importance of multilateral groupings that seek to counter U.S. power in the global order. If India continues to face the brunt of tariffs, it may work more closely with China and Russia—and fellow members of groupings like the SCO and BRICS, to try to develop new economic mechanisms, like new banks, that circumvent the U.S. dollar.
This is the very fear that prompted Trump to threaten to slap tariffs on BRICS members; even now, two BRICS states—India and Brazil—have received the highest U.S. levies under Trump.
Officials in Washington are unlikely to view Modi’s visit to China with much concern. But it does reflect a thaw in India-China relations that is now poised to accelerate in the wake of Trump’s moves—even if the two remain strategic competitors.
What We’re Following
Earthquake in Afghanistan. Search efforts are underway in eastern Afghanistan this week after a 6.0 magnitude earthquake rocked the country late Sunday night local time. The epicenter was near the city of Jalalabad, not far from the border with Pakistan. By Tuesday, the death toll had passed 1,400 people.
Afghanistan is no stranger to earthquakes, which have collectively claimed several thousand lives in the country in just the last few years. The latest tragedy will refocus attention on the capacity constraints of the Taliban regime in responding to humanitarian crises. Donors have drastically reduced aid to Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
However, when it comes to natural disasters, Afghanistan can count on support from the international community. The U.S. government provided assistance after the 2022 earthquake. United Nations agencies and the International Red Cross are on the ground assisting with rescue efforts, though the Taliban say that they still need more help.
Bangladesh’s election timetable. Bangladesh’s election commission has released a formal time frame for the country’s next elections, which are scheduled for the first half of February. This will be a relief to the Bangladeshi public, much of which is eager to see that election plans are on track.
Impatience with the interim government, which marked one year in office last month, is growing amid economic stress and challenges to law and order. However, when I was in Dhaka during the last week, interlocutors noted that a range of key players—from a new political party headed by student leaders of last year’s protest movement to some members of the interim government—may have an interest in elections being delayed.
That said, other important stakeholders, including the military and interim leader Muhammad Yunus, seem committed to seeing elections through. The chance of angry street protests and resulting instability are high if they don’t take place.
India’s economic growth. India released the economic growth data for the first quarter of its fiscal year (April-June), and the figures are impressive. The country’s GDP grew by 7.8 percent during that period, marking the highest rate in more than a year and exceeding the predictions of many observers—including the State Bank of India. Manufacturing sector growth registered at 7.7 percent; the critical industry had seen uneven performance in recent months.
Indian economists attribute the higher-than-expected growth to front-loaded exports to the United States shipped out before the new tariffs on India went into effect, along with surges in domestic demand, lower inflation rates, ramped-up government spending, and a strong services sector. Many Indians see the latest data as a clapback to Trump’s withering criticism of India, which he has called a “dead economy.”
The figures should provide a boost for New Delhi, but the good news could be fleeting. The combination of U.S. tariff effects and entrenched economic challenges could bring growth down later this year. India’s chief economic advisor, V. Anantha Nageswaran, said that he is keeping his overall growth projections for the year at between 6.3 percent and 6.8 percent.
FP’s Most Read This Week
- So You Want to Work in International Affairs by Luke Coffey
- Trump’s Economic Policy Is More Radical Than You Think by Howard W. French
- China and India May Be Moving Toward a More Coordinated Foreign Policy by Chietigj Bajpaee and Yu Jie
Under the Radar
Last month, India and China reached an agreement to resume border trade along three different routes—apparently as part of their ongoing detente. One of these routes includes the Lipulekh Pass, a disputed strategic space claimed by both India and Nepal.
As a result, the seemingly routine border trade decision has sparked a furor in Kathmandu that has managed to unite leaders across the political spectrum in Nepal—a rare development given the country’s famously fractious politics.
This episode highlights the geopolitical challenge that Nepal faces as a small country sandwiched between two Asian giants. It aims to balance ties with both India and China—two critical partners—but it also has its share of grievances against them. How it conveys these concerns while taking care not to antagonize them requires deft and delicate diplomacy.