U.S. voters know that they are determining their own government in this election, but do they know that they might also decide Germany’s?
The so-called traffic light coalition, which includes Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, the German Greens, and the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP), has been in power for three years. For the last year, it has been hanging by a thread: The parties are bickering over pretty much everything, most recently over how to stimulate the economy after years of stagnation.
Whether the coalition manages to limp on will depend on whether there is an electoral advantage to be gained by preempting the regularly scheduled election next year. Germans are known for prizing stability, but recent polling seems to indicate that they simply want the current coalition put out of its misery.
Last week, FDP leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner circulated a document that amounted to a request for divorce, seemingly calculating that Germans would reward the FDP for blowing up the government and forcing an early election.
But the election of Donald Trump in the United States could change that. Trump represents nothing if not the threat of instability for Germany, whether in the form of new tariffs on German cars or a cease-fire deal in Ukraine that leads to new waves of refugees.
The last thing Germans will want then is a government thrust into an unplanned election campaign, unable to act in a moment of crisis. A second Trump administration, in other words, could give Germany’s government a new lease on life.
This post is part of FP’s live coverage with global updates and analysis throughout the U.S. election. Follow along here.