2023
As Russia’s war against Ukraine enters its third winter, the scenarios for its outcome are still unclear. With neither side making substantial territorial gains in more than a year, there is much debate about whether the conflict has entered a stalemate—and who is to blame for Ukraine not advancing more quickly. At the same time, the fighting remains highly volatile in other ways, as Ukraine’s effective defeat of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in 2023 has shown.
The more crucial fight, it seems, is political. With Russian forces unable to gain any significant ground since summer 2022, President Vladimir Putin is betting on Western exhaustion. Already, weapons deliveries to Ukraine have slowed to a trickle as the U.S. Congress debates and delays the next allotment of aid. Along with Berlin, Washington has held back on delivering key weapons systems, such as the longer-range missiles that would allow Ukraine to hit important Russian targets farther behind the front, including in occupied Crimea.
Rightly or wrongly, Ukraine and its supporters believe that Western aid is calibrated to allow the Ukrainians not to lose and not to win.
Putin likely has his eyes on the U.S. election in November 2024. Should former President Donald Trump return to the White House for a second term, Ukraine could lose its most significant source of military aid, sanctions against Russia could quickly crack, and Kyiv could be pushed to hand substantial parts of its territory and population to Moscow—while likely still facing the Kremlin’s designs to control the country.
To help understand where we are in the conflict and the implications going forward, here are five of Foreign Policy’s best articles from 2023 on the war in Ukraine.
1. The Case for Supporting Ukraine Is Crystal Clear
By Michael McFaul, Nov. 16
With U.S. military aid to Ukraine almost depleted and Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives delaying any vote on additional deliveries, Michael McFaul makes a strong argument that the aid is not only crucial for Ukraine, but also serves critical U.S. interests.
2. What a Russian Victory Would Mean for Ukraine
By Adrian Karatnycky, Dec. 19
With Kyiv’s counteroffensive stalled and the U.S. Congress deadlocked over continued military support, some analysts are raising the specter of a Ukrainian defeat. Judging by what Russia is saying and already doing, that would lead to terror on a scale not seen since the darkest days of the 20th century.
3. Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Is More Successful Than You Think
By Oz Katerji and Vladislav Davidzon, Oct. 20
After Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive failed to produce a spectacular breakthrough, there has been much talk of a stalemate. That, however, obscures important Ukrainian successes in and around Crimea, where the Russian fleet has been pushed out of the western Black Sea. Ukraine’s naval victory will have strategic impacts in 2024 and beyond.
A Ukrainian soldier of the 65th Mechanized Brigade walks on a road near the front-line village of Robotyne, in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, on Oct. 1.Roman Pilipey / AFP via Getty Images
4. Negotiating With Russia Is Still a Bad Idea
By Raphael S. Cohen and Gian Gentile, Oct. 9
The further one gets away from the front line, the louder the calls for a negotiated end to the war—with various rationales ranging from not wanting to push the Russians too far to supposed war fatigue in the West. Once you scratch below the surface, however, the case for negotiating with Russia quickly falls apart, Raphael S. Cohen and Gian Gentile write.
5. Lessons for the Next War
By FP contributors, Jan. 5
For the cover story of our Winter 2023 print issue, Foreign Policy asked 12 experts to distill the most important lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine that might help prevent, deter, or—if necessary—fight the next war. Drawing conclusions from a fast-evolving war is tricky, but we think our authors’ prescriptions held up remarkably well. Judge for yourself how they did.