Israel-Hamas War

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at aid convoys into Gaza amid Israeli ground invasion preparations, Chinese and Philippine vessels colliding in the South China Sea, and elections in Argentina and Venezuela.

Israel escalated its attacks against Hamas over the weekend with increased airstrikes on the Gaza Strip. On Monday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced in a statement that it had struck 320 militant targets in the past 24 hours to prepare for a “maneuver” and that its ground forces had conducted limited raids into Gaza overnight, suggesting a full-scale ground invasion could be imminent.

However, the New York Times reports that the United States has urged the IDF to postpone a ground assault to allow more time for Washington to help negotiate the release of more than 200 hostages being held by Hamas. Already, four hostages have been released since Oct. 7: two dual Israeli-American citizens on Oct. 20 and two Israelis on Monday. The Biden administration also reportedly wants more time to prepare for possible attacks against U.S. targets in the region by Iran-backed groups, which officials expect would increase in the event of an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza.

Meanwhile, aid convoys continue to enter Gaza through Egypt’s Rafah border crossing. On Saturday, 20 trucks carrying food, water, and medical supplies marked the first time that humanitarian assistance was allowed into the region. More than 30 additional trucks crossed the border on Sunday, and Turkey announced on Monday that it would send two additional planes with medical equipment, medication, and generators to Rafah. “There will now be continued flow of this critical assistance into Gaza,” the White House announced after U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday.

But these transports are not enough to combat the growing humanitarian crisis for Gaza’s 2.3 million residents. According to the United Nations, 20 trucks accounted for only 4 percent of an average day’s imports into the Gaza Strip before the war began. To allow more aid into the area, European Union foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell backed the U.N.’s call for a pause in fighting on Monday.

These pleas to suspend airstrikes and hold off on a ground invasion do not reverse the West’s continued support for Israel, though. Leaders from the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom released a joint statement on Sunday that asserted Israel’s right to defend itself. They also urged Israel to follow humanitarian law by protecting civilians, particularly those who wish to leave Gaza. And they reiterated the importance of working with regional partners to ensure that aid is delivered to the war-torn area and the conflict does not engulf the wider region.

• Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Is More Successful Than You Think by Oz Katerji and Vladislav Davidzon
• The End of Biden’s Middle East Mirage by Matthew Duss
• The Best Books for Understanding the Israel-Hamas War by FP Staff and Contributors

Tuesday, Oct. 24: Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appears in court following his return from a self-imposed exile.

Tuesday, Oct. 24, to Wednesday, Oct. 25: French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Netanyahu in Israel.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol visits Qatar.

Tuesday, Oct. 24, to Thursday, Oct. 26: Colombian President Gustavo Petro meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in China.

Wednesday, Oct. 25: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with religious leaders.

Thursday, Oct. 26: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visits Belarus.

The European Central Bank and Turkey’s Central Bank determine their interest rates.

Thursday, Oct. 26, to Friday, Oct. 27: European heads of state and government convene in Brussels.

Friday, Oct. 27: Russia’s Central Bank determines its interest rate.

Saturday, Oct. 28, to Sunday, Oct. 29: G-7 trade ministers meet in Japan.

Sunday, Oct. 29: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins a three-day trip to Nigeria and Ghana.

Maritime bumper cars. Manila accused the Chinese Coast Guard on Monday of “intentionally” hitting Philippine ships while Manila’s vessels were on a resupply mission in the South China Sea over the weekend. No one was harmed in the collision, which occurred in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing, in turn, blamed Manila for bumping into its fishing vessels and “trespassing” in its exclusive economic zone.

The Philippines accused China of violating international maritime law and summoned its Chinese ambassador to condemn Beijing’s actions, with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. launching an investigation into the incident on Monday.

Sunday’s altercation is just the latest incident to occur in the South China Sea’s contested waters. As FP’s Jack Detsch reported in September, Beijing in recent months has amped up its naval pressure campaign against smaller nations such as the Philippines that dispute China’s self-proclaimed sovereignty over much of the South China Sea.

Nearing election season. In a surprise win, Argentine Economy Minister Sergio Massa won the first round in Sunday’s presidential election with 36.7 percent of the vote. Far-right populist Javier Milei garnered only 30 percent, meaning the two economists will now go head to head in the Nov. 19 runoff. Massa’s win suggests that Argentina’s citizens are hesitant to follow the wave of populism growing in Latin America.

Meanwhile, in Venezuela, industrial engineer María Corina Machado appears to have beat nine other candidates to win the country’s opposition primary vote on Sunday, securing roughly 93 percent support with 26 percent of the vote counted as of Sunday night. The center-right candidate—who has pledged to free the country’s market, privatize the state’s oil company, and move Caracas away from authoritarian rule—could pose a serious electoral threat to President Nicolás Maduro if she’s allowed to run in the country’s general elections in 2024.

However, Maduro’s government has banned her from competing in elections for 15 years, saying she did not complete her declaration of assets and income when she was a legislator. Venezuela’s government and opposition signed an agreement last week to move toward holding free and fair elections next year, part of which included a commitment to allowing the opposition to choose a candidate. Now that Machado seems to have been selected as that candidate, it remains to be seen whether the Maduro government will reverse her disqualification.

Historic aerial drills. South Korea, Japan, and the United States held military aerial exercises near the Korean Peninsula on Sunday to counter growing North Korean aggression in the region. They tested B-52 bombers and fighter jets as part of the nations’ first trilateral aerial drills in history, marking a “new era” in defense ties, the U.S. ambassador to South Korea said.

Pyongyang is far from happy over the region’s aerial exercises. On Friday, state media called the air drills an “intentional nuclear war” provocation, following precedent when it comes to Western-led military drills near the Korean Peninsula.

Drivers in Madrid were forced to cede the streets on Sunday—not to protesters or marathon runners, but to sheep. As part of the annual Fiesta de la Trashumancia, Spanish shepherds donned traditional herding attire to help hundreds of sheep cross the capital’s busiest intersections, including Puerta del Sol. Talk about a noisy—and smelly—traffic jam.