Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Jack and Robbie here.

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Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: What U.S. troops in the Middle East can do to help deter Israel’s adversaries, the Capitol Hill speaker vote gets even more chaotic, and an ominous threat to telecommunications cables running through Europe’s seas and oceans.

Fear and Loathing in the Eastern Mediterranean

The Biden administration has ordered a major U.S. troop presence to the Eastern Mediterranean in the wake of Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which left 1,400 people dead and now has the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on the verge of a major ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, one of the world’s most densely populated places.

But what can those 2,000 U.S. troops, two carriers, two guided missile cruisers, and seven guided missiles destroyers now in the Eastern Mediterranean or nearly so actually do to help Israel deter further incursions, either from Gaza or Lebanon? SitRep talked to a half-dozen current and former officials and experts to fill you in.

Thin red line. While the use of the word “red line” is now verboten in official Washington after the Obama administration’s back-and-forth debates over how to respond to Syria’s use of chemical weapons a decade ago, U.S. defense officials have indicated that the name of the game in deploying U.S. forces to the region is deterrence.

U.S. defense officials have indicated that the carriers are deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean as a giant “keep out” sign to Iran and Hezbollah, the Tehran-backed organization in Lebanon that is armed with thousands of ballistic missiles and is also the country’s strongest political force.

“The presence of aircraft and things like carriers and missile boats I think are important to send a message to Iran and to others who see this as an opportunity to widen the conflict,” said Joseph Votel, a retired U.S. Army general who led U.S. Central Command until 2019.

What has been deployed? The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group, which arrived in the Eastern Mediterranean on Oct. 10, brought along with it the guided missile cruiser USS Normandy and the guided missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner, USS Ramage, USS Carney, and USS Roosevelt. This will extend the deployment for weary sailors aboard the Ford, who have been at sea since May.

The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower strike group will probably take a week or so to steam to the Eastern Mediterranean and will be joined by the guided missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea and the guided missile destroyers USS Laboon, USS Mason, and USS Gravely.

Both carriers are supplemented by a suite of aircraft that are now in the region: F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets and A-10 ground attack aircraft, the Gulf War favorite that the Pentagon just can’t quit.

Oh yeah, and 2,000 U.S. Marines are on the way to the region, and there are 2,000 more still in the United States that the Pentagon is putting on ready-to-deploy orders.

Mixed messages. Despite the major show of force, the United States isn’t currently considering helping the Israelis with boots on the ground. U.S. President Joe Biden, who was traveling in the Middle East this week and saw most Arab leaders cancel on him after a deadly rocket strike on Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza (which the United States says is not Israel’s fault), knocked down reports that U.S. troops would enter the fray if Hezbollah or Iran got involved, prompting jeers from some former Trump administration officials and Iran hawks.

It’s also not clear that the U.S. units have the authority to enter a shooting war with Israel’s adversaries unless they are directly attacked. U.S. presidents have time and again overridden congressional objections to carry out military operations under controversial legal bases. The authorization for use of military force, or AUMF, passed after 9/11 to go after al Qaeda has since been used to launch 41 military operations across 19 countries—something critics say stretches to the limits the original intent of that AUMF and paved the legal pathways for “forever wars.”

Hawks on Capitol Hill are looking at the potential of a new legal pathway to strike at Hezbollah, Hamas, or other militant groups aligned with Iran.

But even if U.S. boots don’t touch Israeli soil, former top U.S. military commanders say the views from the masthead will give the IDF raring for a ground operation in Gaza more eyes on the situation. There are radars, airborne intelligence assets, and Aegis anti-missile arrays on the surface ships.

“It’ll provide more situational awareness for the Israelis,” said Frank McKenzie, a retired U.S. Marine general who led U.S. Central Command until 2022.

Allied reaction. European defense officials cheered the deployment of the carriers. European officials have also been watching Russia’s growing relationship with Hamas and fear that the Kremlin could try to exploit the chaos in the Middle East, as FP’s Amy Mackinnon and one of your humble SitRep hosts reported this week.

The nuclear angle? One big angle of this brewing conflict is not often talked about: Israel has maintained an opaque nuclear arsenal. Some analysts have speculated that the forceful U.S. naval deployments to the region and Biden’s visit to Israel were aimed at heading off any potential risk of Israel ever considering deploying its nuclear forces or rattling its nuclear saber in any form in the current context. (Israel has never even formally acknowledged its nuclear arsenal, even despite some slip-ups by top officials that flirt with the edge of its so-called strategic ambiguity.)

But none of the numerous officials and experts we have spoken to since this crisis first erupted have brought up the nuclear angle in the context of Israel, so this seems a far-fetched concern, particularly as Iran seems intent on working only through proxies instead of becoming directly involved in the conflict.

Yet, as far as deterrence goes, some former U.S. military officials believe that Israel’s road to reestablishing order goes straight through the Gaza Strip—even despite the devastating humanitarian toll on Gaza’s embattled civilian population.

“Israel has no choice,” McKenzie said. “Their model of deterrence failed. The model … was based on the idea that if you screw with us, we’re going to kill you. Well, they’ve been screwed with badly. So now they’ve got to go in and use overwhelming force to reestablish deterrence.”

More than 4,200 people have been killed, including a “large number of women and children,” and more than 1 million displaced in Gaza, according to the latest statistics compiled from the United Nations.

Let’s Get Personnel

Jim Jordan is likely not going to be the next speaker of the House as the drama in the Republican caucus continues. But numerous Republican congressional aides tell SitRep there’s a growing push to grant the current acting speaker, Patrick McHenry, explicit power to conduct legislative business as a full-fledged speaker would. What comes next if that effort flames out? Who the hell knows at this point.

Biden is preparing to nominate Kurt Campbell as deputy secretary of state, Politico reports, putting the architect of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy a blinking heartbeat away from being the nation’s top diplomat.

The Biden administration’s decision to top up U.S. military aid isn’t sitting well with everyone at the State Department’s Foggy Bottom campus, though. Josh Paul, the longtime director of congressional and public affairs at the State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, publicly resigned from the agency on Wednesday, calling the White House decision to provide more weapons an “impulsive reaction built on confirmation bias.”

LeAnne Noelani Howard joined the National Security Council as NATO coordinator in October, sources revealed to SitRep. Also jumping on board the National Security Council is Dilpreet K. Sidhu, who will be deputy chief of staff and special assistant to the president.

On the Button

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

Fireworks on the hill. There was palpable tension in the room as Biden’s pick to be ambassador to Israel, Jack Lew, sat before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for his confirmation hearing. At three separate points in the first 10 minutes, protesters leapt up from the seats behind Lew yelling pro-Palestinian chants and calling for the United States to impose an immediate cease-fire. Sen. Bob Menendez, the New Jersey Democrat who had to give up the committee gavel amid a massive corruption scandal, showed up despite most of his fellow Democrats on the panel urging him to resign. (Most of the other Democrats on the panel didn’t speak to or even acknowledge him.)

Republican lawmakers, including Sen. James Risch, the ranking member, hammered Lew over his role in the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal. (Lew was treasury secretary at the time.) Risch said he was “underwhelmed and unpersuaded” by Lew’s responses to his questions.

Lew hammered Iran as a key threat to Israel’s existence and vowed that, if confirmed, he would “work to prevent other state or nonstate actors from expanding this conflict to new fronts” and to “address the humanitarian crisis” in Gaza. Based on how the hearing went and discussions afterward with several congressional aides, Lew faces a rocky but not insurmountable path to confirmation. Democrats, who narrowly control the Senate with a 51-49 majority, will likely push through his nomination, but it’s unclear whether Lew will get any Republican votes. (Other ambassador nominees can skate through on a glide path of unanimous consent if there are no objections, but Lew won’t have that luxury.)

“There are people on this committee who, Mr. Lew, are not going to let you out of the penalty box on that,” Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine said of the Iran deal during the hearing.

Europe’s soft underbelly. Damage to a gas pipeline and two telecommunications cables that connect Estonia with Sweden and Finland has once again underscored the challenge of protecting the critical infrastructure that ballasts the seabeds of Northern Europe. All three countries are investigating the damages, which are thought to have occurred at the same time. On Wednesday, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told FP’s Amy Mackinnon that the damage appeared to be man-made. “This is not an environmental accident,” he said, adding that it can be considered an “attack against NATO infrastructure.”

Snapshot

Put on Your Radar

Thursday, Oct. 19: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in North Korea just a month after the Kremlin and Pyongyang signed a deal to provide Moscow with more ammo for its war in Ukraine. The Senate held a confirmation hearing for Biden’s nominee to be U.S. ambassador to Egypt, Herro Mustafa Garg.

Friday, Oct. 20: Biden hosts the U.S.-European Union summit, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set to visit the White House.

Sunday, Oct. 22: Switzerland holds federal elections. Argentina holds a general election. The Venezuelan opposition holds its primary vote.

Monday, Oct. 23: French President Emmanuel Macron is set to visit Sweden, which is still waiting for parliamentary ratification votes in Turkey and Hungary to become a full-fledged NATO member.

Wednesday, Oct. 25: Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hold a summit at the White House, followed by a state dinner.

Quote of the Week

“Why supply ATACMS? Let [the United States] take back ATACMS and all other weapons. Let [Biden] sit down for pancakes and come to us for a tea party.”

—Russian President Vladimir Putin, in response to news that the United States provided
long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.

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• Why the Israeli Hostages Face Grim Prospects by Tal Alroy