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Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy
16 Aug 2023


NextImg:Ukraine Calls Russia’s Shipping Bluff

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the unveiling of Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor amid Russian shipping threats, calls for mass volunteer recruitment to support Niger’s coup, and who won’t be Thailand’s next prime minister.


Ship Departs Odesa, Defies Russia

Ukraine is tired of cowing to Russian maritime threats. The Hong Kong-flagged Joseph Schulte container ship left the port of Odesa, Ukraine, for Istanbul on Wednesday despite threats from Moscow to treat any vessels leaving the Black Sea as military targets. Vows to safeguard civilian shipping in the region ended on July 17, when Russia refused to renew its Black Sea Grain Initiative with Ukraine.

It is unclear whether Moscow will allow the Joseph Schulte to traverse the sea unharmed or risk intensifying the war. “If Russia began attacking vessels carrying Ukrainian grain, it could mark a sharp escalation in the conflict,” FP’s Christina Lu and Amy Mackinnon wrote last month. “But even if Moscow does not immediately act on its threats, just the fear of an attack, or the presence of the embargo, is stirring enough uncertainty to spook insurers and international grain markets.”

The Joseph Schulte, which is carrying more than 30,000 metric tons of cargo, has been forced to wait at the Odesa port since the day before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Last week, Ukraine announced the creation of a “humanitarian corridor” to allow shipping vessels stuck at the Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdenny ports since the start of the war to leave. Joseph Schulte will be the first cargo ship to use that passage.

Despite Ukraine establishing a supposed safe route, shipping and insurance companies remain wary of Russian attacks. Just last Sunday, Russian troops fired warning shots across the bow of the Palau-flagged Sukru Okan cargo ship as it made its way across the southwestern Black Sea toward the Ukrainian port of Izmail. The incident marked the first time Moscow explicitly targeted merchant shipping since abandoning the grain deal.

Some regional experts are urging shipping authorities to forgo traditional Black Sea routes and solely use the Sulina Channel, a 40-mile waterway connecting the sea to Moldovan, Romanian, and Ukrainian ports via the Danube Delta. Prior to Moscow’s invasion, Danube shipping carried around 100,000 tons of Ukrainian grain each month. Since then, that number has exceeded more than 20 million tons. According to U.S. sanctions coordinator James O’Brien, the amount of Ukrainian grain exported via this route “will more than double” in the near future.

Joseph Schulte’s departure came just hours after Russian drones targeted Ukrainian grain storage facilities in Reni, a Ukrainian city along the Danube River roughly 160 miles southwest of Odesa. Reports indicate that numerous silos and warehouses containing grain and sunflowers were damaged. Since the Black Sea grain deal expired, Russia has hit more than 26 Ukrainian port facilities and hundreds of thousands of tons of grain.


Today’s Most Read


What We’re Following

Niger coup supporters seek recruits. Supporters of Niger’s junta announced the start of mass recruitment efforts this week to prepare for the potential deployment of regional forces to the West African nation. They aim to register tens of thousands of people across the country with the Volunteers for the Defense of Niger, which would assist the Nigerien military in fighting troops sent by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) as well as provide engineering logistics, medical assistance, and other functions.

Recruitment will officially begin this Saturday in the capital and in border cities where ECOWAS forces may enter the country. Last week, the regional body announced the deployment of a “standby force” into Niger in response to the junta leaders failing to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum by an Aug. 6 deadline. However, what that force could look like remains unclear. Junta leaders are aware of local recruitment efforts but are not organizing the drive themselves, according to local organizers.

Say goodbye to Pita. Thailand’s Constitutional Court dismissed a petition to renominate Move Forward Party candidate Pita Limjaroenrat for prime minister on a technicality on Wednesday, setting in motion next week’s vote to choose Bangkok’s next premier without him. Pita, whose party won May’s parliamentary elections, was suspended from his seat in July over allegations that his ownership of shares in a media company was prohibited under election rules; Pita’s shares have since been transferred, and the corporation was inactive when he ran for office.

Regional experts fear Thailand is facing a democratic decline, especially as the country’s parliament continues to thwart candidates that do not support the monarchy’s status quo. Pita was harassed over Move Forward’s efforts to amend a law that criminalizes anyone who criticizes the country’s ruling party. According to Freedom House, Thailand is “not free.”

Mob attacks churches in Pakistan. Religious tensions rose in eastern Pakistan on Wednesday after a group of Islamists accused a Christian family of desecrating a copy of the Quran. Hundreds of Muslim men attacked the Christian community in Faisalabad in the wake of the accusation, setting fire to at least four churches, looting homes, and vandalizing a cemetery. Local police were deployed to quell the violence. Pakistan has a history of false accusations of blasphemy against religious minorities in the country, such as Christians.

Reports of Quran desecrations in Denmark and Sweden have recently drawn outrage in the global Muslim community. In June, an Iraqi man burned a Quran outside a mosque in Stockholm. In protest, Iraqi demonstrators stormed the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad, expelled the ambassador, and torched the compound a month later. But the incidents haven’t stopped: Last Monday, two men burned a Quran outside of Sweden’s Royal Palace to discourage efforts to criminalize the destruction of religious iconography.

U.S. Treasury announces new sanctions. On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions on three entities that support arms deals between Russia and North Korea. Verus, Defense Engineering, and Versor are accused of helping Moscow evade existing Western sanctions by connecting the Kremlin with North Korean military equipment. Slovakian national Ashot Mkrtychev, who holds leadership positions in all three companies, is alleged to have brokered negotiations to transfer more than two dozen armaments to Russia in exchange for raw materials and other commodities.


Odds and Ends

First McDonald’s, then Subway. Now the King is feeling the strain of surging inflation. In India, multiple Burger Kings have been forced to scrap tomatoes from their burger and wrap menus this week as prices for the fruit quadruple, fueling greater fears of rising food prices across the country. “Even tomatoes need a vacation,” read notices on two Burger King storefronts.