It’s time to consider whether the 2020 election was the anomaly, not 2016.
As the results from this year’s vote sink in, Americans must process the basic strength of the MAGA/Republican coalition. While there will be soul-searching among Democrats about what they did wrong, it is equally incumbent on their party to start thinking about how President-elect Donald Trump not only won but also substantially broadened his base.
Trump’s appeal to rural, working-class Americans is clearly formidable, and he has expanded his reach among Black, Latino, and suburban voters—once considered solid members of the Democratic bloc.
After the 2020 election, political journalists Amie Parnes and Jonathan Allen wrote Lucky, which examined the unexpected variables that resulted in President Joe Biden securing the Democratic nomination and winning the general election at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Looking back, the authors were onto something: In 2020, few votes would have been necessary to shift the outcome to Trump—who increased his total vote count from about 63 million to 74 million, despite his record in office.
Though the unique circumstances of 2020 opened a window for Biden to defeat Trump, now that those circumstances are gone, the latter has roared back into power.
Democrats need to wake up—not to replicate the kind of reactionary populism that the GOP has used to win, but rather to start the process of figuring out how to address the economic concerns and frustrations of working-class Americans who feel abandoned by political institutions.
Until Democrats take this step, the risk of 2028 being a continuation of 2024 will only grow stronger.
This post is part of FP’s live coverage with global updates and analysis throughout the U.S. election. Follow along here.