Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report, where we have some exciting personnel news to start with: Rachel Oswald has joined our news team! Rachel comes to FP from CQ Roll Call, where she spent more than a decade covering foreign policy on Capitol Hill, and we’re already geeking out with her on all things geopolitics.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: U.S. President Donald Trump escalates military deployments in more U.S. cities, announces a triumphant but still tenuous Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal, and threatens to deny back pay to federal workers impacted by the government shutdown.
A ‘War From Within’
Trump significantly escalated his domestic deployment of U.S. military forces this week, sending hundreds of troops to Chicago despite extremely vocal opposition from the city’s mayor, Brandon Johnson, as well as Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker. (Trump, in turn, has called for both leaders to be jailed.)
It’s the fifth such deployment in just 10 months of Trump’s second term in office, heightening concerns about creeping authoritarianism and politicization of the military. Most of the deployments have been challenged in the courts.
Trump has claimed he’s fighting a “war from within,” justifying the deployments with tenuous assertions of out-of-control crime and “rebellion.”
Here’s what you need to know.
Where It’s Happening
Los Angeles: The largest city in California—a state whose governor, Gavin Newsom, Trump has repeatedly clashed with—became the first U.S. city to see National Guard and Marine troops on its streets in June. They were sent in to quell protests against Trump’s immigration actions. A federal judge in September deemed those deployments illegal, a decision the Trump administration has appealed.
Washington, D.C.: Trump activated the National Guard in the U.S. capital in August, claiming they were needed to address violent crime in the city despite data showing it to be at its lowest level in three decades. While the D.C. National Guard is automatically under federal control, the troops there have seemingly spent more time mulching cherry trees and cleaning up garbage than fighting crime. There’s also an ongoing legal challenge to this deployment.
Memphis, Tennessee: This is the only deployment so far where the state’s governor supports the move. Republican Gov. Bill Lee said he was “grateful” for Trump’s announcement of National Guard troops in mid-September to “combat crime” in Memphis. Most of those troops are reportedly yet to arrive, however, and are expected in the city on Friday.
Portland, Oregon: Trump’s decision to send troops to Portland—which he outlined in a Sept. 27 Truth Social post describing the city as “War ravaged”—was sparked by protests outside a local facility run by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the agency executing Trump’s aggressive deportation policy. A federal judge this week blocked that deployment, as well as Trump’s efforts to reassign National Guard troops from other states such as California and Texas to Portland.
Chicago: As noted above, Trump has deployed Texas National Guard troops to Chicago. Court hearings on the legality of that deployment as well as the one in Portland took place on Thursday.
Where Else Trump Wants Them
Trump has mused about sending U.S. troops to several other Democratic-run cities, including his native New York as well as San Francisco, Baltimore, and New Orleans.
The White House is also now weighing whether to invoke the Insurrection Act, which allows presidents greater control over the military to quell domestic rebellion. This would be a rare and extreme step, as the law has only been invoked 30 times in 230 years. The last time was under President George H.W. Bush during the 1992 Los Angeles riots.
Why It Matters
Trump’s unprecedented and expanding effort to deploy troops in multiple U.S. cities is having rippling consequences and has the potential to set precedents that could impact generations to come. Critics contend that Trump is manufacturing crises and politicizing the military in dangerous ways that could undermine national security.
Retired military leaders have expressed serious concerns that the deployments are hurting troop readiness, damaging the relationship between the military and public, and could impact recruitment. Polling shows that the administration’s deployment of National Guard troops in major U.S. cities is unpopular among voters. Some Republican lawmakers are also now beginning to express reservations over the deployments.
Let’s Get Personnel
As the U.S. federal government shutdown drags on into its second week, the Trump administration is now threatening to deny back pay to the roughly 750,000 federal workers who have been furloughed, in contravention of a law that Trump himself signed during his first term in 2019. The uncertainty could further dent workforce morale and make the United States potentially vulnerable abroad, former State Department spokesperson and CIA analyst Ned Price told Rishi last week. You can read more from Price and others about the foreign-policy impact of the shutdown here.
Separately, the Washington Post reports that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s sweeping investigation into criticism of the recently slain right-wing activist Charlie Kirk has impacted some 300 Defense Department employees, even as the department forges ahead with controversial restrictions on the Pentagon press corps.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Gaza peace deal. Trump announced in a Truth Social post on Wednesday that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of a deal to end the two-year war in Gaza. Under the deal, Israel will withdraw its troops from parts of the territory to a stipulated line and release nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, while Hamas will release the remaining 48 hostages it has in its custody, of whom 20 are believed to be alive. Trump said the release is expected to take place “Monday or Tuesday,” and that he will “try and make a trip over” to the region in the coming days.
While all parties appear to be on the same page for now, several questions—and opportunities for the broader deal to fall apart—remain, including whether Hamas will agree to disarm, who will govern postwar Gaza, and whether Palestinian statehood will be on the table.
War powers. The U.S. Senate on Wednesday voted down a bipartisan resolution aimed at curbing Trump’s ability to conduct military strikes on alleged Venezuelan drug traffickers. Democratic Sen. John Fetterman joined Republicans in voting against the resolution, which was defeated 51-48, while Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul voted with Democrats in favor of it.
The Trump administration has informed Congress that the United States is in armed conflict with drug cartels in Latin America, labeling the gangs as “narcoterrorists.”
Snapshot
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a bilateral meeting at Raj Bhavan, the governor of Maharashtra’s official residence, in Mumbai on Oct. 9. Stefan Rousseau/Getty Images
Put on Your Radar
Friday, Oct. 10: The Nobel Peace Prize winner is announced.
Sunday, Oct. 12: Cameroon holds a presidential election.
Monday, Oct. 13: The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is announced.
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings begin in Washington, D.C.
Wednesday, Oct. 15: NATO defense ministers are scheduled to meet in Brussels.
Japan is expected to hold a parliamentary vote that could confirm Sanae Takaichi as the country’s first woman prime minister.
By the Numbers
$16.3 billion: The amount of direct military aid the United States has provided to Israel in the past two years. Israel has received more than $300 billion (adjusted for inflation) in U.S. economic and military aid since 1946, roughly double the next largest recipient, Egypt.
Quote of the Week
“These motherfuckers are crazy.”
—Former U.S. vice president and presidential candidate Kamala Harris, addressing social media creators at a conference in Los Angeles, about how to chronicle the current political moment. Harris later joked that she was on a “freedom tour.”
This Week’s Most Read
- Trump’s Speech to Generals Was Incitement to Violence Against Americans by Kori Schake
- How Military Leaders Should Respond to Trump’s Norm-Busting by Peter D. Feaver and Heidi A. Urben
- Who Is Japan’s First Female Prime Minister? by Ming Gao
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
It’s been a big week for Latin American leaders with musical aspirations. Argentine President Javier Milei celebrated his country’s recent U.S. economic bailout and his upcoming book by performing several rock ballads for a crowd of 15,000 people in Buenos Aires. While Milei still has a country to run, former Colombian President Iván Duque Márquez faces no such hurdles in his reported second act as a DJ under the moniker “DJ Duq.”