Europe is a big casualty of the U.S. elections. It is better prepared for a Trump presidency than it was eight years ago—but to limited effect, since Europe’s geopolitical situation has worsened in that same period.
Having seen Trump in action, Europe knows what could be coming this time: aggressive economic competition—even a trade war—and severe conditionality, at best, on continued U.S. contributions to Europe’s security and defense. Meetings chaired by the European Commission have been held for the past year to prepare for these scenarios.
Retaliatory measures have been drawn up if the Trump administration raises tariffs on European goods. And talks about common investments in a European defense industry—in order to reduce dependence on Washington—may have stalled, but the proposals exist and can get moving if the 27 member states feel sufficient urgency. Moreover, Europe has (for once!) chosen strong leaders; one reason Mark Rutte was appointed NATO secretary general is that, as Dutch prime minister, he managed to work with Trump reasonably well. The hope is clearly that Rutte can keep the United States engaged in NATO as a somewhat reliable ally.
Despite these preparations, Europe is not ready for Trump 2.0. The world has changed radically since 2016, to Europe’s disadvantage. It is surrounded by two wars, in Ukraine and the Middle East, whose outcomes will be determined by outside powers, not Europeans. The multilateral rules-based order is imploding and cannot be shored up by Europeans alone. U.S.-Chinese rivalry, meanwhile, dominates everything—with Europe squeezed in the middle.
Europe can only shield itself when it is strong and defending common positions. During previous shocks (COVID-19, the euro crisis, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), the 27 put their differences aside to defend the common interest. Much more resolve will be needed in the coming years.
This post is part of FP’s live coverage with global updates and analysis throughout the U.S. election. Follow along here.