• Foreign & Public Diplomacy
• United States
• Russia
• Ukraine

The Trump administration has launched a fast-track effort to end the Russia-Ukraine war, but it is in danger of undermining its own approach. Key elements of the plan have been clear for months: a cease-fire roughly along the current front line, with the Ukrainian-held portion of Russia’s Kursk region an unresolved bargaining chip in Kyiv’s hand, and security arrangements for Ukraine, principally involving European troops but backed by U.S. air power and other support.

This could work. A sovereign and secure Ukraine would be a big win for Europe and the United States, even if the Ukrainian government controls only part of its country for the time being, like the West German government during the Cold War.

Security for Ukraine is critical. Insisting that Europeans put up the troops to deter renewed Russian attacks after a cease-fire is a bold move, and it is gaining traction. The United States has asked its European allies to specify what they are willing to provide to support Ukraine. This blunt approach may be intended to push the Europeans to put up or shut up. Some of them even seem to be getting closer to putting up: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has essentially accepted the challenge and will be visiting Washington next week to flesh it out. That’s not a deal, but it’s a promising start.

Now, however, U.S. President Donald Trump seems to be getting in the way of his own plan. The recent U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia seemed fine. There was no breakthrough, only the beginning of a process. But Trump’s subsequent attacks on Zelensky and apparent demands that Ukraine hold elections as a precondition for talks may break the momentum that Trump’s initial push had generated. The fight with Zelensky may be intended to soften the Ukrainians, but it has the effect of strengthening Russia’s hand, which is hardly the best negotiating tactic.

There will be more tests to come. Will Washington push Moscow to end the war, or will the Trump administration give in to the Kremlin’s demand that Ukraine hold elections first? Will the United States have its European allies’ backs if they agree to send forces to Ukraine? Will the Trump administration fritter away its leverage by agreeing to sanctions relief before Russia has earned it by fulfilling all the terms of a cease-fire? Reports that the United States was seeking to soften G-7 language that called out Russian aggression are dismal; they recall previous and foolish U.S. attempts to buy Russian goodwill through preemptive concessions that the Kremlin regards as weakness.

The Trump administration risks playing the patsy. If it sticks to its own best positions on Ukraine—and to peace through strength—it could succeed. Or it could stoop to a dirty deal with a dictator. It’s game time, and the Trump team needs to level up.