Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at U.S. tariff threats against India, a massive earthquake in the Indo-Pacific, and Thailand’s and Cambodia’s fragile cease-fire deal.
Trump’s Next Tariff Target
The United States will impose a 25 percent tariff on India beginning Aug. 1, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday. Despite five rounds of negotiations, India has so far been unable to secure a better deal. And with the new rate being a mere 1 percentage point less than the original amount threatened in April, Washington is demonstrating that it seeks an aggressive strategy to help curb the United States’ trade deficit with India.
“Remember, while India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday. In 2024, India was the United States’ 10th largest trading partner, and the U.S. trade deficit with the country was $45.7 billion.
Alongside a 25 percent tariff, Trump threatened on Wednesday to impose an additional “penalty” for India’s continued purchasing of Russian oil, energy, and military equipment. It is unclear what that penalty might be, but experts believe that it may consist of the 100 percent secondary tariff that the White House has threatened to place on some of Russia’s biggest trading partners, including China, India, and Brazil.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Moscow has become India’s largest oil supplier. And between January and June of this year, Russia accounted for about 35 percent of India’s total oil supplies, according to Reuters data. As Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine have failed and the U.S. president has begun to lose patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intransigence, there has been a growing appetite in Washington to cut off that vital source of revenue to pressure the Kremlin to get serious about peace.
“Here’s what I would tell China, India, and Brazil: If you keep buying cheap Russian oil to allow this war to continue, we’re going to tariff the hell out of you and we’re going to crush your economy, because what you’re doing is blood money,” Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said during a Fox News interview earlier this month.
Similarly, Trump has threatened to impose further sanctions on Moscow within the next two weeks if Putin fails to make progress toward a cease-fire deal with Ukraine.
Using trade threats to accomplish economic and diplomatic ambitions is a well-worn strategy of the Trump administration. Since announcing its plan to negotiate “90 deals in 90 days” in April, the administration has made several bilateral trade agreements, including with the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
On Tuesday, U.S. and Chinese officials also agreed to continue discussions to extend a tenuous 90-day trade truce set to expire in mid-August; the initial deal scaled back U.S. duties on China from 145 percent to a total of 55 percent, reduced Chinese duties on the United States from 125 percent to 10 percent, and relaxed restrictions on rare earths, visas, and technology exports.
Today’s Most Read
- Is This the Start of a U.S.-China Friendship? by Graham Allison
- Trump Is Pushing India to Submit to China by Sushant Singh
- Trump’s Missed Opportunities Are Piling Up by Stephen M. Walt
What We’re Following
Massive earthquake. An 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck Russia’s Far East early Wednesday, sending tsunami waves across the Pacific and forcing thousands of people to evacuate their homes. The tremor was one of the largest earthquakes ever recorded. Multiple aftershocks—measuring as much as 6.9—followed the initial quake. And subsequent tremors caused a lava flow from Russia’s Klyuchevskaya Sopka, which is the largest active volcano in the Northern Hemisphere.
Although no fatalities or substantial damage were reported in the quake’s initial aftermath, largely due to the Far East’s sparsely populated area, scientists have warned that the tsunami’s impact may last for hours or even longer, as strong currents and high waves still affect coastlines.
Officials have issued tsunami alerts in more than a dozen Indo-Pacific countries, including Russia; Japan; the Philippines; Australia; New Zealand; smaller Pacific islands and territories, such as Fiji, French Polynesia, Micronesia, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu; Chile; Colombia; Ecuador; Canada; Mexico; and the U.S. states of Hawaii, Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington. Some of these locations have since lifted their warnings.
Border skirmishes. Thailand and Cambodia reaffirmed their fragile cease-fire deal on Wednesday, mere hours after accusing each other of violating the truce. The announcement—mediated by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong—appeared to quell bubbling tensions along the two countries’ shared 510-mile border, allowing some of the more than 260,000 people displaced by the fighting to begin returning home.
Five days of deadly clashes ended on Monday, when Thai and Cambodian officials agreed to an “immediate and unconditional” cease-fire. But by Tuesday, Thailand’s military had accused Cambodian forces of launching attacks at several locations, and on Wednesday, exchanges of gunfire were once again reported. Phnom Pehn has denied these allegations.
Meanwhile, Cambodia has accused Thailand of illegally capturing more than 20 Cambodian soldiers. “One of our soldiers managed to flee,” Cambodian Maj. Gen. Chan Sopheaktra said. “We suspect two others may have died, but the rest are still being held by the Thai military, with no signs of release as of this afternoon.” Thai government spokesperson Jirayu Houngsub said Thai troops were holding 18 Cambodians who had surrendered in Thailand’s Sisaket province, adding that they would be returned after a permanent cease-fire is reached.
Age restrictions. Australia added YouTube on Wednesday to its list of social media platforms that will require account holders to be at least 16 years old, beginning in December. “The evidence cannot be ignored that 4 out of 10 Australian kids report that their most recent harm was on YouTube,” Australian Communications Minister Anika Wells said on Wednesday. “We will not be intimidated by legal threats when this is a genuine fight for the well-being of Australian kids.”
Australia became the first country to impose age restrictions for social media platforms last November, with legislation targeting Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, and X; YouTube was initially excluded from the rules. Under the policy, platforms will face fines of up to roughly $33 million starting Dec. 10 for “failing to take responsible steps” to prevent underage account holders.
A YouTube spokesperson called the new limits a reversal of Canberra’s “clear, public commitment” to treat the platform as an educational tool but did not reference the status of potential legal threats from parent company Alphabet.
Odds and Ends
It’s how all good treasure-hunting stories begin. In February 2024, a schoolboy running through the remote Scottish beaches on the Orkney Islands discovered the underbelly of a wooden ship poking through the sand. After further digging and analysis, scientists last Wednesday confirmed that the vessel appears to be the HMS Hind, an 18th-century British warship used during the American Revolution before being repurposed for whale-hunting in the Arctic under a new name, the Earl of Chatham. A storm wrecked the ship in 1788, though all 56 crew members reportedly survived.