Welcome to Foreign Policy’s second-ever Southeast Asia Brief. Based out of Jakarta, I’ve been closely watching this region for years—fascinated by the pivotal role it has in geopolitics and the global economy as well as its complex local dynamics. Following this culturally and linguistically diverse region can be a challenge, but this Brief aims to provide a guide to both the headline issues and some of the quieter developments under the surface.
The highlights this week: Timor-Leste’s protests find an echo in Southeast Asia and beyond, Thai security forces and Cambodians clash on the border, Australia’s Albanese struggles for a date with Trump, and the latest cycle of China-Philippines escalation kicks off at Scarborough Shoal.
Timor-Leste Protests Resonate Across the Region
Protests have rocked countries in Southeast Asia and beyond in recent weeks, with young people taking to the streets to demonstrate against perceived elite corruption and excess. Last week, it was Timor-Leste’s turn, with protests led by university students erupting in the capital of Dili on Sept. 15.
For three days, protesters gathered to demand an end to plans by the National Parliament to buy 65 Toyota Prados, one for each parliamentarian, and the abolition of parliamentary pensions. Police fired tear gas, while protesters set fire to tires and government cars.
Things have since calmed, with Parliament promising to cancel the car purchases and get rid of pensions. However, sources in Dili warned that there could be more unrest if root causes such as poverty, inequality, and a perception of self-dealing among officials were not addressed.
Former Timorese Prime Minister Rui Maria de Araújo told Foreign Policy that the Gen Z uprisings in countries across the region showed a “trend in extraparliamentary democratic rejection of public policies and governance behaviors which harm the common interest of the people.” The opposition Fretilin party, of which Araújo is a member, has swung behind the protests.
Some noted that the grievances that sparked the latest demonstrations were long-standing. “The cars are a recurring grievance—and a symbolic one,” said Parker Novak, a Timor-Leste expert and director at the International Republican Institute. “There is something to be said for it reflecting perceptions of an elite that is better off economically than most Timorese.”
Having won its independence from Indonesia in 2002, Timor-Leste still struggles with endemic poverty. Some 40 percent of Timorese are impoverished, and 46 percent of children suffer from malnutrition, said Aurélio Guterres, a former Timorese foreign minister and Fretilin member. “In the face of such staggering need, the decision to allocate $4.2 million for luxury cars and parliamentary benefits is not just fiscally irresponsible—it is a cruel demonstration of how disconnected our leaders are from the suffering of the people,” he said.
Students also warned of escalation if Parliament failed to deliver on its promised concessions. Celcio Soares, a student representative, said veterans groups from the independence struggle against Indonesia were planning to join the protests if parliamentarians reneged on their commitments.
Last week’s protests took place among a swell of unrest in Southeast Asia and beyond. Demonstrations rocked Indonesia in late August (which I reported on for Foreign Policy) and toppled the Nepali government this month. The Philippines is seeing ongoing protests, which turned violent on Sept. 21.
While local dynamics are at play, common themes emerge. First is anger at corruption among political elites: lavish housing allowances for MPs in Indonesia, “nepo baby” conspicuous consumption in Nepal, infrastructure graft in the Philippines, MPs’ cars and pensions in Timor-Leste.
The second is an old vs. young element. These countries have young populations, and youth were at the forefront of protests. However, older people dominate the formal political systems. The median age in Timor-Leste is 21, while the president is 75, and the prime minister is 79. Indonesia, Nepal, and Philippines have similar situations.
Third is that these protests are inspiring one another. The One Piece flag, a skull and crossbones with a straw hat taken from the eponymous manga, started as a protest symbol in Indonesia. But it is now flown by protesters throughout the region.
Demonstrations in other countries “energized the protesters,” said Fidelis Magalhães, a former Timorese minister and member of the opposition People’s Liberation Party.
What We’re Watching
Thailand-Cambodia flare-up. On Sept. 17, Thai security forces and Cambodians clashed in a disputed border area, as tensions persist after the brief border skirmish in late July. The incident took place in an area Cambodia calls Prey Chan, Banteay Meanchey, and Thailand calls Ban Nong Ya Kaew, Sa Kaeo. At least 30 Cambodians were injured—including civilians, Buddhist monks, and at least one soldier—according to reporting by pro-government Cambodian media. Thai officers were also reportedly injured.
The day before, according to the Royal Thai Army, Cambodian soldiers accompanied by civilians removed barbed wire laid by Thailand in the disputed area. Things escalated when Thai armed force and riot police entered the disputed area and then began to use rubber bullets, tear gas, and acoustic devices to clear Cambodians from the area while laying new barbed wire. Cambodians reportedly threw objects and used slingshots against Thai forces.
Further escalation seems possible. The Thai provincial government has issued an ultimatum ordering Cambodians it accuses of encroaching on border areas to leave by Oct. 10 and has also threatened to arrest violent protesters. Cambodia, meanwhile, is trying to draw in the international community. Prime Minister Hun Manet has sent a letter to world leaders including U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres accusing Thailand of evicting Cambodian civilians. Thailand, however, seems to wish to avoid further international involvement.
Australia prepares for Trump snub. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is heading to the United States and will likely come back still without having a formal one-on-one meeting with Trump. The failure to secure a meeting with the leader of Australia’s most important security partner will raise eyebrows and concerns in many quarters. Albanese initially steered clear of Trump ahead of his May reelection, using the former’s toxic brand in Australia to wreck the campaign of opposition leader Peter Dutton, who was dubbed a “Temu Trump.” After winning, though, he has tried to reverse course with no success.
The meeting matters, as having long relied on the U.S. security umbrella, Australia is facing its increasing unreliability. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—with Australia, the United States, Japan, and India—is on the rocks. And key figures in the Trump administration are skeptical of the AUKUS nuclear submarines program. “I think it’s probably the most consequential meeting between an American and Australian in living memory,” Kurt Campbell, a key diplomat under former U.S. President Joe Biden, said at an event in Sydney last week. Clearly, Campbell has never seen the 1986 classic Crocodile Dundee.
Malaysian Islamists push for power. Malaysia’s opposition has descended into internecine conflict. While the alliance is still holding, for now, the Islamist party PAS is tussling over control of the country’s opposition coalition, Perikatan Nasional (PN). PAS is the single-largest party in Parliament and makes up more than 60 percent of the opposition. Despite PAS’s growing election success, its hard-line reputation traditionally led its partner, Bersatu, to take the lead. Now, though, PAS figures are suggesting someone from their party, not Bersatu, should be PN’s prime ministerial candidate.
Battle at the Vietnamese box office. Vietnamese audiences are packing cinemas to watch two domestic films produced by, respectively, the Military Cinema Studio and People’s Police Cinema Studio. Mua do (Red Rain) is a nationalist chest-thumper that depicts the bloody Second Battle of Quang Tri. The film has been a smash hit, becoming the highest-grossing Vietnamese film of all time. This week, it lost its top spot to the police-produced Tu chien tren khong (Sky Showdown), inspired by a 1978 plane hijacking.
Photo of the Week
Vietnam’s Duc Phuc performs during the Intervision Song Contest at the Live Arena in Moscow on Sept. 20.Olesya Kurpyayeva/AFP via Getty Images
Vietnam’s Duc Phuc triumphs at Intervision 2025 in Moscow. After Russia’s expulsion from Eurovision in 2022 over its invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin revived the Soviet-era song contest. Vietnam was this year’s only Southeast Asian attendee.
FP’s Most Read This Week
- America’s Infuriating and Irreplaceable Role at the U.N. by Richard Gowan
- How China Called America’s Bluff by Ravi Agrawal
- The End of Development by Adam Tooze
Local Voices
Some 50 members of the Cambodian security forces died in July’s clashes with Thailand. In Nikkei Asia, Ananth Baliga and Phoung Vantha combed through social media and other data to come up with a figure considerably higher than Cambodia’s official claim of just five military deaths.
“With Min Aung Hlaing’s forces bombing villages and torching homes, how can people possibly maintain their livelihoods or feed their families?” Exiled Myanmar economist U Sein Htay spoke to the Irrawaddy last week on how the junta is digging into an old economic playbook to survive.
In Focus: Escalation at Scarborough Shoal
Chinese and Philippine vessels have once again clashed around Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, some 135 miles from the Philippine mainland. Experts described it as the latest cycle of escalation in China’s long campaign to assert control over other countries’ territorial waters that it lays claim to as part of its “nine-dash line.”
According to the Philippine Coast Guard, on Sept. 16 two China Coast Guard vessels deployed water cannons against a Philippine fisheries vessel for 30 minutes, causing “significant damage” and injuring one person. The Philippines says the vessel was on a mission to resupply Filipino fishers at the reef. The China Coast Guard admitted that it had deployed water cannons but claimed that 10 Philippine government ships had entered the waters around the shoal, which China claims as its own.
For more than a decade, Chinese and Philippine vessels have jousted in waters around this reef and other locations in the South China Sea. Things seem to have moved into a higher tempo recently. On Aug. 11, two Chinese military vessels crashed into each other while harassing a Philippine Coast Guard vessel, with possible fatalities on the Chinese side. And on Sept. 10, China declared the waters around Scarborough a nature reserve—in what many see as a transparent attempt to try to bolster its dubious legal claims to the area.
Still, some say, recent events fit a long-standing pattern. “China-Philippines tends to be a bit cyclical,” said Gregory Poling, the director of the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The usual pattern, Poling said, is China will adopt more aggressive and riskier tactics in a contested area until an incident occurs that is dangerous enough to convince both sides to move to de-escalate.
Poling admitted that he was surprised tensions continued to rise after the Aug. 11 crash. The likely Chinese deaths in that incident would be the first deaths of military personnel in the South China Sea since 1988, Poling noted, when China gunned down 64 Vietnamese soldiers raising a flag on a reef in the Spratly Islands, which China also claims.