Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report, where John has had an eventful week reacquainting himself with the United Nations HQ’s maze of hallways and stairwells ahead of the U.N. General Assembly (UNGA) in late September. He’s looking forward to Rishi tag-teaming the high-level week with him as world leaders gather in the Big Apple (and praying the awful heat wave will have broken by then). Keep an eye out for our coverage!
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: A U.N. conference on a two-state solution, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s political ambitions, and new sanctions on Iran.
A ‘Political Horizon’ for Palestine
France and Saudi Arabia co-hosted a conference at the United Nations this week that aimed to breathe new life into the long-standing but elusive goal of a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. The conference occurred against the backdrop of rising global outrage over Israel’s tactics in the war on Gaza and escalating settler violence in the occupied West Bank. There was a sense of urgency among those in attendance, as diplomats called for an immediate cease-fire, the release of all hostages held by Hamas, and Israeli restrictions on aid to be lifted.
The death toll in Gaza since the war began has surpassed 60,000, and a leading global hunger monitor warned that the “worst-case scenario of famine” is underway in the enclave. Amid growing concerns that Israel aims to depopulate Gaza and annex territory, U.N. chief António Guterres on Monday implored conference attendees to go beyond “well-meaning rhetoric.”
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot in an address to the conference said that the two-state solution is in “mortal danger” and conceded that it’s difficult to remain hopeful. Yet Barrot made the case that a two-state solution is the only alternative to the long cycle of violence between Israel and Palestine and argued that it would be pointless to hope for a lasting cease-fire without “sketching out a shared vision for what comes after the war in Gaza” and a “political horizon.”
The Israeli government, which opposes Palestinian statehood, boycotted the event, as did the United States. The Trump administration dismissed the conference as “ill-timed” and a “publicity stunt.”
Road map. The conference may have fallen short in terms of fully reviving the two-state solution. But overall, it still reaffirmed the international community’s determination to end one of the world’s most intractable conflicts and helped lay out a road map for how it hopes to get there with a joint communique—the New York declaration—that was backed by the Arab League, the European Union, and 17 other countries.
The New York declaration envisions the Palestinian Authority, which was repeatedly lauded during the conference for recent reform efforts, eventually governing all Palestinian territory. The declaration condemns Hamas for the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel and calls for the militant group to disarm and relinquish power—the first time the 22-nation Arab League has backed a joint statement to this effect. France called the declaration “unprecedented.”
“At a minimum, all this talk of a two-state solution at the U.N. offers a political horizon for those Palestinians who cling to the idea that there may be a diplomatic solution to their situation,” Richard Gowan, the U.N. director at the International Crisis Group, told SitRep. This may seem “unrealistic” in the short term, Gowan said, but it’s “important to underline” that the “horizon is still there.”
Slovenian Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon, who was in New York for the conference, told SitRep that she was pleased with the conference’s outcomes. “Like-minded countries” showed that they are committed to a two-state solution “as the only guarantee for the safety of Israelis and Palestinians living side-by-side” and have outlined “next steps” for building a Palestinian state and supporting moderate Palestinians amid future reconstruction efforts, she said.
Slovenia recently set itself apart among EU countries by becoming the first in the bloc to bar two far-right Israeli ministers—Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich—from entering its borders over their “genocidal” rhetoric toward Palestinians. This week, the Netherlands also slapped an entry ban on Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Along these lines, Fajon emphasized the importance of the international community putting political pressure on Israel.
Political recognition. The conference came just days after France announced it will recognize the state of Palestine and was designed to ramp up pressure on other countries to follow suit.
The pressure strategy appears to have worked. In the midst of the conference, the United Kingdom announced that it would recognize Palestine if Israel doesn’t agree to a cease-fire before the UNGA in September. In an address at the conference on Tuesday, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy was met with loud applause as he declared the U.K.’s intention to take this step. Canada and Malta this week also announced that they will recognize Palestine as a state at UNGA in September.
France and the United Kingdom are among the world’s most powerful countries and have historically been steadfast allies of Israel. Though recognizing Palestine as a state is a largely symbolic move for now, and the U.K. has stopped short of fully committing to do so, the steps both countries have taken in that direction indicate that Western countries are losing patience with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government.
Asked whether it would have been better for London to unconditionally recognize Palestine as a state, which Slovenia and roughly 75 percent of the world’s countries have already done, Fojan said she understood that the U.K. and others are being cautious but that “of course” much more can be asked from many states.
“Time is of the essence” with the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and children dying from malnutrition, she added, and countries have a “moral, legal responsibility to act.”
Let’s Get Personnel
There’s no indication that his current job is in jeopardy, but that hasn’t stopped Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth from reportedly putting feelers out on another. Hegseth has had discussions about running for governor of Tennessee next year, NBC News reports, a move that would require him to resign from the Defense Department.
Jim Durrett has been appointed deputy chief of staff to Vice President J.D. Vance, having previously worked in a similar role for Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee.
Mark Calabria is now the chief statistician at the Office of Management and Budget.
Austin Montini has been appointed as a presidential speechwriter.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
New Iran sanctions. The U.S. Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions on an Iranian shipping magnate and his affiliates on Wednesday, describing it as the department’s “largest Iran-related action since 2018,” during President Donald Trump’s first term. The sanctions target more than 50 ships and dozens of entities linked to Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, who controls a “significant portion” of Iran’s crude oil exports, according to the Treasury Department. The sanctioned network includes vessels and companies in India, Turkey, Switzerland, and the United Arab Emirates. Shamkhani’s father, Ali Shamkhani, is a key advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and was sanctioned by the United States in 2020.
“The Trump administration seeks to drive down Iranian oil exports,” Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender told reporters in a briefing on Wednesday. “Our goal is to limit Tehran’s primary source of revenue to pressure the regime to end its nuclear threat, curtail its ballistic missile program, and stop its support for terrorist groups,” he said.
“We believe this action is really targeting the heart of the Iranian regime,” a senior Treasury official added.
Dems sue Trump over ICE. Also on Wednesday, a dozen Democratic lawmakers filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, accusing it of obstructing congressional oversight into detention facilities run by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) by preventing members of Congress from visiting. The lawmakers include Reps. Joe Neguse, Jamie Raskin, Bennie G. Thompson, Adriano Espaillat, Robert Garcia, J. Luis Correa, Jason Crow, Veronica Escobar, Norma Torres, Dan Goldman, Jimmy Gomez, and Raul Ruiz.
“Blocking Members of Congress from oversight visits to ICE facilities that house or otherwise detain immigrants clearly violates Federal law—and the Trump Administration knows it,” Neguse said in a statement. “Such blatant disregard for both the law and the constitutional order by the Trump administration warrants a serious and decisive response,” he added.
Europe’s tankless bridges. European countries would struggle to get military equipment over to the continent’s border with Russia in the event that Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to expand his military assault beyond Ukraine, the European Union’s transport chief, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, told the Financial Times.
Not only are several bridges and tunnels across the continent too small or weak to bear tanks, but existing border controls between EU member states mean those tanks could also get stuck filling out paperwork. “The reality today is that if we want to move military equipment and troops from the western side of Europe to the eastern side, it takes weeks and in some cases months,” Tzitzikostas said.
The EU has identified 500 projects to urgently upgrade to ease those roadblocks in concert with NATO officials, though the names of those projects are not being made public for security reasons.
Snapshot
Cambodian migrant workers wait to cross the Ban Laem border checkpoint in Chanthaburi, Thailand, on July 29. Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a cease-fire in talks brokered by Malaysia after deadly clashes along their disputed border that have resulted in at least 35 deaths and displaced over 200,000 people. Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images
Hot Mic
“Let’s hope the president continues to move in the direction he has the last couple of weeks,” Sen. Mitch McConnell said in the Senate on Wednesday at an event hosted by the McCain Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C. McConnell was talking mainly about Trump’s increasingly hard line against Putin over Russia’s war in Ukraine, though the Republican lawmaker also took the time to mention that he “thought dropping a bomb on Iran was a great idea, probably long overdue.”
McConnell, who is set to retire from Congress next year after more than four decades, criticized the isolationist impulses within the Trump administration, particularly on Ukraine. “I think there are those not only at the Defense Department but at the White House who are trying to convince the president we ought to do less, not more,” he said. “I think just the opposite is the case.”
The 83-year-old senator also did what Washington’s trans-Atlantic allies did not during last month’s NATO summit in the Hague, calling on the United States to increase its own defense spending to the 5 percent of GDP target that European countries have committed to.
“America must continue to lead by our own example—we simply cannot expect allies to reach and sustain 5 percent if we’re only willing to spend 3.5 percent or so,” he said, referencing the current U.S. spending level of 3.4 percent of GDP. “A strategy to lead from behind is no strategy at all.”
Put On Your Radar
Friday, Aug. 1: Trump’s tariffs on dozens of countries set to take effect.
Wednesday, Aug. 6: Inauguration of Polish President-elect Karol Nawrocki.
80th anniversary of the United States dropping an atomic bomb on Hiroshima, Japan.
By the Numbers
7—The number of trade deals Trump has officially announced with just one day to go for his updated Aug. 1 deadline to impose tariffs on most U.S. trading partners. Rishi has outlined those agreements—and where other countries stand—in our new Trump Trade Tracker, which we’ll continue to update as new deals are announced.
Quote of the Week
“Seriousness does not require subservience.”
—Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in an interview with the New York Times about his opposition to Trump’s threat to impose 50 percent tariffs on Brazil if the country doesn’t drop its case against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally, is on trial on charges of plotting a coup to remain in power after he lost the 2022 election to Lula.
This Week’s Most Read
- The Great Dismantling by Suzanne Nossel
- Why Isn’t China Wooing Europe? by Julian Gewirtz
- Xi Jinping’s War on Dinner Is Hurting China’s Economy by Lizzi C. Lee
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
What’s the price of online public humiliation? According to a court in Argentina, it’s approximately $12,500. That’s how much the court ordered Google to pay an Argentine police officer who was photographed naked in his yard by one of the company’s Google Street View car-mounted cameras. The man, who said he was behind a 6.5-foot perimeter wall when the image was captured, sought compensation from Google, claiming an invasion of privacy that led to him being ridiculed by friends and coworkers. The court made the award earlier this month, though the incident in question took place in 2017.