Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Afghanistan’s Taliban regime finds itself in a good position three years into its rule, Bangladesh’s interim government looks to restore law and order after a period of violent protest, and Pakistan welcomes the return of an Olympic hero.
Taliban Rule, Three Years on
Thursday marks three years since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan. Despite considerable challenges both at home and abroad, the group finds itself in a good situation—in stark contrast to most of the country’s 40 million people.
Today, the Taliban face no threats to their political survival. They appear to have weathered serious internal differences over policy, especially the ban on women’s secondary education that followed the takeover. Armed resistance to the regime is weak and largely inactive. Unlike in the past, anti-Taliban factions can’t count on money or arms from regional or global actors.
Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), the Taliban’s only rival among the various Islamist militant groups in the country, has been degraded by the regime’s scorched-earth ground operations—which have garnered grudging praise from the United States. IS-K may project an increasingly greater threat outside Afghanistan, but its attacks within the country have decreased in recent months.
Meanwhile, the world may not have formally recognized the Taliban regime, but it is nonetheless engaging with it. Senior foreign diplomats frequently meet with Taliban leaders, most recently at a United Nations-hosted summit in Doha, Qatar, that excluded civil society leaders and Afghan women at the Taliban’s demand. About a dozen countries have open embassies in Kabul, and the Taliban currently staff roughly 14 Afghan embassies.
Trade is flourishing between the Taliban and its neighbors in Central Asia and Iran. The regime is not a pariah; several countries see it as a potential partner—including China, which last year signed an oil exploration deal with the Taliban and this year accepted the credentials of a Taliban ambassador to Beijing. All of this helps give the Taliban the international legitimacy it craves.
Additionally, the international community lacks the leverage or the access to compel the Taliban’s supreme leadership to change its abhorrent policies toward women. With attention often focused on multiple other international crises—including the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East—the Taliban know that many of their activities will be overlooked abroad, meaning that they will face less pressure from the international community.
Afghanistan itself is in an abysmal state. Data released this week by a consortium of international humanitarian organizations paints a dreadful picture: Nearly 24 million people, more than half of them children, need humanitarian aid. More than 12 million people are acutely food insecure, and more than 6 million are displaced. Unemployment has doubled in the past year. And for many Afghans, the realities of Taliban policy remain brutal.
The Taliban do face serious policy challenges. Although they have managed to generate revenue and released budgets, the Afghan economy is in deep crisis, with a 26 percent real GDP contraction in the past two years. The regime’s 2022 decision to ban poppy production eliminated one of the country’s only profitable industries. Donor fatigue, exacerbated by humanitarian crises elsewhere, adds to these economic woes.
Meanwhile, the Taliban are embroiled in tensions with onetime top patron Pakistan—mostly of their own making. The Taliban have declined to curb anti-Pakistan militants on their soil, which has prompted Pakistan to stage cross-border counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan and use pressure tactics. Pakistan was one of the few countries willing to support Taliban interests on the global stage—including by making pitches for unconditional aid. That backing is no longer ensured.
Because of the Taliban’s overall strong position, these challenges don’t threaten the regime. That speaks to the Taliban’s status as a regional and global outlier: Not only is it one of the world’s most brutal regimes, but it is also one of the most stable. In South Asia and beyond, collapsing coalitions, mass movements for change, and elections are upending politics. None of this applies in Afghanistan.
Three years after retaking power, the Taliban regime has become an island of longevity in a sea of political churn.
What We’re Following
Law and order in Bangladesh. Bangladesh moved quickly to constitute a new government after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster on Aug. 5, swearing in an interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus last Thursday. The government is comprised of a striking range of individuals: retired military officers, former diplomats, economists, human rights activists, religious figures, and two students who led the mass movement against Hasina.
Tough questions about the transition—how long the interim government will last, when elections will take place—will likely take a back seat in the coming days. For Yunus, restoring law and order is the most pressing issue. Bangladesh is reeling from a rash of attacks on those seen as supporting Hasina, including the police and members of the Hindu and other religious minority communities.
This week, police returned to work for the first time since Hasina’s ouster, and Yunus met with Hindu community leaders to pledge support. Thursday will be a major test for the interim government: Aug. 15 is the anniversary of the 1975 assassination of Hasina’s father, independence hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The day tends to be emotional in Bangladesh even in calmer times; both Hasina supporters and opponents may take to the streets.
New Adani link allegations. U.S. firm Hindenburg Research published a report over the weekend accusing Madhabi Puri Buch, the head of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)—India’s market regulator—of ties to offshore funds used by billionaire Gautam Adani’s conglomerate. Last year, Hindenburg accused the Adani Group of massive fraud, which it denies.
The new allegations are significant because Buch is overseeing an investigation of Adani’s business activities, suggesting a possible conflict of interest. Buch has categorically denied this, insisting that she made her investments before she worked for SEBI. Still, the allegations have put her in the political hot seat. India’s political opposition reacted quickly, lambasting SEBI, calling for Buch’s resignation, and demanding a parliamentary investigation.
With Indian National Congress politician Rahul Gandhi now holding the formal parliamentary role of opposition leader, he is in a strong position to push for such a probe. But the government, which has close ties to Adani, would likely resist such efforts. Adani himself will easily ride out the challenge, as he did the fraud allegations; although Adani Group lost $2.43 billion in stock value on Monday, much of it was recovered.
Pakistan fetes Olympic hero. Pakistani javelin thrower Arshad Nadeem set a new Olympic record in Paris and became the country’s first-ever Olympic gold medalist. His story is inspiring: Nadeem rose from poverty to become a top performer in his sport, even though it has never received much support from the government. (He famously trained as a young man using homemade javelins carved from eucalyptus branches.)
Pakistan has a complex relationship with its heroes: Some who receive widespread acclaim abroad, such as education activist Malala Yousafzai or the late Nobel laureate Abdus Salam, are maligned at home. But Nadeem has received nothing but an outpouring of support. On Sunday, he returned to a hero’s welcome, with cheering crowds showing up at the Lahore airport.
Under the Radar
Last weekend, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met with senior officials in the Maldives, including President Mohamed Muizzu. The visit was the latest indication that India-Maldives relations remain warm, despite Muizzu’s decisions to expel India’s military presence from the Maldives and sign a new defense deal with China.
During the visit, Muizzu said—not for the first time—that India has long been one of the Maldives’ closest allies, and he expressed gratitude for India’s development and economic assistance. The bilateral development partnership was a core theme of Jaishankar’s visit, which included an inauguration ceremony for an India-backed water and sanitation project.
Jaishankar also spoke about defense cooperation, but Muizzu tellingly did not. That is a useful illustration of how Muizzu likely views his country’s relationship with New Delhi. He appears keen to better balance the Maldives’ relations with India and China, prioritizing economic cooperation with the former and other forms of collaboration, including defense, with the latter.
That should suit India, which is already facing uncertainties in its relations with another neighbor—Bangladesh—and will be keen to stabilize ties with the Maldives after a period of turbulence.
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Regional Voices
A Daily Star editorial expresses concern about firearms looted from at least 22 Dhaka police stations during Bangladesh’s recent violent unrest: “Given the country’s volatile state at present, the possibility of these weapons falling into the wrong hands is extremely troubling,” it argues. “We urge law enforcement agencies to focus their attention on recovering these firearms as quickly as possible.”
Kathmandu Post editor Biswas Baral likens Nepal’s senior politicians to their counterparts in Bangladesh. Top leaders in Bangladesh “treated their country as personal property and rode roughshod over democratic norms and values. This same sense of entitlement could eventually doom Nepal’s own entitled leaders,” he writes.
Entrepreneur Shaukat Ahmed laments how Pakistani politicians tried to claim credit for the success of Nadeem, the Olympic gold medalist, in an article in Dawn: “In the corridors of power, there was an attempt to co-opt his victory,” he writes. “It was a moment that laid bare the vanity and self-importance that so often taint the higher echelons of power.”