The night appears to be heading down a familiar path for U.S. election watchers: a nail-biting tally of the votes in the final swing states, with former U.S. President Donald Trump in the lead. Neither candidate has pulled off an upset; instead, the race is so far trending along the lines of what the polls projected. Trump appears likely to win Georgia and North Carolina, where the news and polling analysis website 538 had him up by a point heading into Election Day. Vice President Kamala Harris would have to make up ground in the urban areas where the votes are still being counted in order to turn those states around.
If Trump wins those two key states, it is likely that the race will come down to the big three “blue wall” states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which helped deliver President Joe Biden to victory in 2020. Harris had a slight advantage in Wisconsin and Michigan in the final polls, whereas Pennsylvania was dead even.
The odds are looking increasingly tough for Harris—the infamous New York Times needle has swung to “likely” for Trump.
This post is part of FP’s live coverage with global updates and analysis throughout the U.S. election. Follow along here.