The question on everyone’s mind today is whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the U.S. election. Of the many ways to read the tea leaves, there is one old standby metric that suggests the likelihood of a Harris victory: the economy.
Recent polling has shown that Trump holds an advantage over Harris on this issue. However, if the old campaign adage “It’s the economy, stupid” still holds, these opinion surveys may be misleading.
Much of the polling attention on the economy has focused on Americans’ dissatisfaction with inflation, which under President Joe Biden topped 9 percent. Memories of inflation may still work against Harris, but they also contend with more positive news.
Besides the fact that inflation has fallen to roughly 2.4 percent nationally, wages have risen faster than prices in recent months, joblessness is at near-record lows, and consumer confidence is up. Even gasoline prices are way down from recent highs and relatively low by historical standards. Overall, the United States has enjoyed a substantially better post-COVID-19 recovery compared with other G-7 countries.
Skeptics looking for a more independent source for this potentially bullish analysis, though, should turn to the Wall Street Journal. Last week, it published an article full of statistics titled “The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy.”
None of this guarantees a Harris victory, but the state of the economy normally weighs heavily in presidential election outcomes, and by most metrics, the U.S. economy is humming along quite nicely.
This post is part of FP’s live coverage with global updates and analysis throughout the U.S. election. Follow along here.