Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep.
Here’s what’s on tap for the day: Russia weighs in on Iran’s promised retaliation against Israel, Kamala Harris puts a Midwestern governor—and foreign policy—on the ticket, and Taylor Swift’s Europe tour runs into terror threats.
Standing by Iran
With the Middle East on tenterhooks waiting for Iran’s response to the recent assassinations of senior figures in Hamas and Hezbollah, widely attributed to Israel, Moscow dispatched former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Tehran for meetings with the president and senior security officials. It’s the latest sign of deepening ties between the two countries as they work to strengthen an anti-U.S. alliance.
Shoigu, who now serves as secretary of Russia’s security council following a cabinet reshuffle in May, met with Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and with Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, in Tehran on Monday.
“Russia is among the countries that have stood by the Iranian nation during difficult times,” Pezeshkian told Shoigu, according to Iranian state media.
Urging restraint. Russia condemned the killing last month of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran as “a very dangerous assassination” and called on all parties to avoid actions that could push the Middle East into a wider regional war. But Reuters reported on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin, through Shoigu, had urged restraint in Iran’s response and advised Tehran against attacking civilian targets in Israel.
“We reaffirm our principled and consistent position of the need to refrain from any actions which could further fuel escalation,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova in a statement to Foreign Policy, adding that Moscow urged all parties involved to exercise restraint.
Analysts said that while Moscow sees benefit to turbulence in the Middle East that distracts global attention from the war in Ukraine, it likely would not welcome a regional war that could quickly draw in several countries, including the United States.
“I don’t think Russia really benefits from this becoming a full-on war,” said Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the author of an upcoming book on the Russia-Iran relationship, noting that it could lead to broader Israeli operations in Syria, where Russian forces continue to operate.
Yes, but. Other experts caution not to hold out any hope for Moscow playing peacemaker in the Middle East. “I’ve heard that [notion] has been raised in a number of different contexts over the years: Syria, Libya, the Sahel,” said John Sullivan, former deputy secretary of state and U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2020 to 2022.
“It’s Westerners thinking, ‘Well, they’ve got influence. Maybe, just maybe.’ But inevitably, they are opposed to the United States and are not a positive influence,” he said. “I am not hoping, expecting, or anticipating that the Russians will exercise a positive check on Iran.”
U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller expressed similar skepticism earlier this week, saying the United States has no expectation that Moscow would play a productive role in easing tensions.
Growing ties. It’s unclear whether Shoigu’s visit was scheduled ahead of this latest escalation. Russia and Iran have strengthened their defense ties in recent years, as Tehran has supplied a materiel-strapped Moscow with attack drones and missiles to help carry out its war in Ukraine. The two countries are working on a cooperation pact, according to statements from the Russian foreign ministry.
Iran has reportedly requested radars and air-defense equipment from Russia, with deliveries already underway, the New York Times reported this week. “The Iranians have an extensive wish list from Russia,” said Hanna Notte, Eurasia director for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
Top of the list: Russian Su-35 fighter jets. The two countries finalized an agreement late last year, according to Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Mahdi Farahi, under a deal that would help modernize the Iranian Air Force’s aging air fleet. Moscow has yet to deliver the jets, though—something Tehran reportedly pressed Shoigu on during his visit.
The two countries are also cooperating on electronic warfare, said Notte, where Russia has advanced capabilities that have plagued the Ukrainian Armed Forces by jamming advanced U.S. weapons systems. Russia has relayed information to Tehran on how its weapons have fared against Western systems on the battlefield in Ukraine, said Notte, while Moscow has drawn from the Iranian playbook on how to evade Western sanctions. “There’s greater knowledge diffusion now,” she said.
Let’s Get Personnel
OK, you’ve all heard this by now, but Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate. Robbie has more on Walz’s foreign-policy views.
Penny Pritzker has stepped down as U.S. special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery at the end of her congressionally mandated term. Richard Verma, deputy secretary of state for management and resources, will take over the portfolio, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced this week.
Jacques Pitteloud has left his role as Switzerland’s ambassador to the United States after five years on the job.
Kai Abe McGuire is now an executive secretary on the U.S. National Security Council (NSC) staff. William Howlett has moved over to the NSC to serve as special assistant to the senior director for international economics. He was previously a Treasury Department official.
The former head of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, David Vigneault, is joining Strider, a U.S.-based strategic intelligence firm, according to a statement.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Plotted, foiled, canceled. Megastar Taylor Swift canceled her three Eras Tour concerts in Vienna this week after Austrian authorities announced they had detained three young men suspected of planning a terrorist attack on the concerts. Austrian officials, reportedly tipped off by U.S. intelligence agencies, were able to foil the alleged plot.
Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner said the alleged plotters were “radicalized by the internet.” Franz Ruf, Austria’s general director for public security, said that explosive devices as well as Islamic State propaganda materials were found in the main suspect’s home.
Reverse uno. Meanwhile, Ukraine invaded Russia. Yes, you read that right. Ukraine this week launched an audacious counteroffensive against Russia, for the first time sending significant forces into Russian territory and taking some 350 square kilometers of Russia’s Kursk region. Battles are raging around the town of Sudzha, Russia, which is an important logistical supply hub for the Russian army. Regular forces from around four Ukrainian brigades are taking part in the offensive, the Financial Times reports.
Meet the new boss. Hamas has a new political leader after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month. Yahya Sinwar, who was formerly the head of Hamas in Gaza, is thought to be in hiding somewhere in the territory.
Sinwar, 61, is allegedly one of the masterminds of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, and his appointment has raised questions about how Hamas will handle the cease-fire and hostage talks with Israel going forward. Although Haniyeh, who was based in Qatar, was the face of the group’s negotiations, U.S. and Israeli officials have said they believe that Sinwar was the real decision-maker running things behind the scenes. He is seen as much more extreme than Haniyeh was on the use of violence, and he has called for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces in a hostage deal. Now, without Haniyeh’s moderating influence, experts expect a hardening in Hamas’s negotiating position.
Snapshot
Samsung staff introduce products to athletes at the Olympic Village before the opening of the Summer Olympics in Paris on July 21. On Thursday, the International Olympic Committee confirmed that athletes representing North Korea were not given the free Samsung smartphones that the South Korean company gave to all of the other 10,500 international competitors. Zhao Wenyu/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images
Put on Your Radar
Wednesday, Aug. 14: U.S.-led talks aimed at ending the Sudan conflict to begin in Geneva, Switzerland.
Thursday, Aug. 15: Three-year anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Quote of the Week
“Dude I won’t even take calls from Ukraine.”
—Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. J.D. Vance tells right-wing blogger Charles Johnson that he’s averse to speaking with Ukrainian officials in a series of texts that Johnson provided to the Washington Post.
This Week’s Most Read
- The Kamala Harris Doctrine by FP Staff
- Why Americans and Israelis Don’t See Eye to Eye on Iran by Steven A. Cook
- Could Iranians Have Been Involved in Haniyeh’s Killing? by Kylie Moore-Gilbert
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Family pets. Growing up in rural Louisiana, Sen. John Kennedy had pets—lots of pets. “We had dogs, we had cats, we had hamsters, we had chipmunks, we had squirrels,” Kennedy said in a Senate floor speech earlier this week.
The family even had baby alligators. “Now the danger of a baby alligator is that they become a big alligator,” he said.