Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report, where we are wondering how serious U.S. President Donald Trump was this week when he discussed the possibility of signing an executive order officially renaming the sport of soccer as “football” in the United States. In the meantime, there are plenty of more pressing geopolitical issues to discuss.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Israel’s strikes in Syria derail talk of normalization, Russia continues to bomb Ukraine despite Trump’s economic threats, and Iran faces a “snapback” ultimatum.
‘Too Early’ to Talk Israel-Syria Normalization
The Trump administration in recent months has pushed for the new government in Syria to join the Abraham Accords and normalize ties with Israel. But Israeli strikes on Syrian government forces this week are indicative of the numerous obstacles standing in the way of the two longtime adversaries establishing formal diplomatic relations.
The strikes came as the Trump administration had begun establishing friendlier ties with the government of interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, including Trump lifting sanctions on Syria in late June. Now, the situation threatens to derail the White House’s goal of seeing Syria stabilize as it transitions out of a devastating 13-year civil war.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday said that the U.S. was “very concerned” by the Israeli strikes, and the Trump administration has called for de-escalation.
Given the situation, it’s “definitely way too early to think about” Syria joining the Abraham Accords right now, Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told SitRep.
“Leave the Druze alone.” The Israeli military has been active in Syria since opposition forces led by Sharaa overthrew the country’s longtime leader, Bashar al-Assad, in late 2024, but this week’s strikes are Israel’s most serious escalation against the new Syrian government to date. On Wednesday, Israeli strikes in Damascus damaged the Syrian military’s headquarters and hit near the presidential palace.
The Israeli government said the strikes over the past few days were meant to protect the Druze, a religious minority in Syria that also has an influential community in Israel, and to maintain a demilitarized zone along Israel’s border. The strikes came after Syrian government forces moved to intervene in clashes between Druze and Bedouin tribes in the southern Syrian city of Suweyda.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Wednesday called for Damascus to “leave the Druze in [Suwayda] alone,” and vowed that attacks on Syrian forces would continue until they withdraw from that city.
Druze leaders and the Syrian government announced a cease-fire on Wednesday. But the situation remains volatile and stands as another example of how sectarian violence has threatened to undermine the new Syrian government.
Keeping Syria “broken.” Normalization is a “much more difficult thing for Syria to accept now,” Zelin said, adding that much of what Israel has done in Syria since the Assad regime fell has been “destabilizing” and driven by a post-Oct. 7, 2023, security doctrine designed to “eliminate all threats everywhere, even if it’s at the expense of potentially building a quiet border in a new relationship.”
Though Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar in late June signaled that Israel was open to expanding the Abraham Accords, and specifically mentioned Syria in that regard, the Israeli military’s operations in Syria—along with issues like Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights and the ongoing war in Gaza—make experts doubtful that normalization is in the cards anytime soon.
Joshua Landis, head of the Center for Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma, told SitRep that Israel’s apparent openness to warmer relations with Syria recently has been designed to “please America, but I don’t think that it’s interested in serious talks.”
“This is a performative situation” and “Kabuki theater,” Landis added.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would prefer to keep Syria “broken” and in a situation where it’s “incapable of hurting Israel,” Landis said. “Israel’s policy of protecting the Druze and forbidding the Syrian military from moving south of Damascus is designed to keep it that way and to establish, in a sense, a buffer region,” he added.
Conflicting views. “The U.S. and Israel have diametrically opposed assessments of Syria,” Landis said. “The U.S. is very concerned, because its two leading allies in the region, Israel and Turkey, are at loggerheads on this issue.”
Trump doesn’t want to see Israel and Turkey, one of the Sharaa government’s primary allies, end up in a conflict. But at the end of the day, Israel “doesn’t trust” Sharaa—a former al Qaeda fighter with a complicated past—and still views him as a terrorist, Landis said.
But this is not to say that Sharaa is ready to rush toward normalization, either. He also has a lot of domestic factors to consider, including the fact that Sharaa’s supporters include jihadists who are hostile to Israel and cheered on the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, Zelin said.
Israel might be betting that Sharaa’s government won’t last, which could also be a hurdle to substantive talks on normalization. “I imagine there are plenty of people in Israel who think this government may fail,” Landis said. “And therefore, why would we make a deal?”
Let’s Get Personnel
The State Department fired more than 1,350 employees last Friday, including 1,107 civil servants and 246 foreign service officers. This is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to align U.S. foreign policy with the White House’s “America First” agenda. Critics say it will deprive the country of vital expertise amid an array of global crises.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Russia keeps calm, carries on bombing. Trump this week warned Moscow that he would impose secondary tariffs on Russian energy exports if a cease-fire deal is not reached in Ukraine in the next 50 days. Russia effectively responded by continuing to bomb Ukraine, in a sign that Trump’s ultimatum isn’t having much of an impact on Moscow so far.
Trump in recent weeks has shifted toward being more critical of the Kremlin and supportive of Kyiv, including announcing a new plan to provide weapons to Ukraine this week. Though Kyiv applauded Trump over the weapons plan, critics have still questioned why Trump has given Russia a 50-day window to continue an aggressive summer offensive in Ukraine rather than moving to impose economic penalties immediately.
Iran faces threat of “snapback” sanctions. The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have agreed to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran if there is no significant progress toward a new nuclear agreement by the end of August. Without concrete progress toward an agreement, the three European countries said they would trigger the “snapback” mechanism restoring sanctions that were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, which the U.K., France, and Germany were party to along with Russia, China, the United States, and the European Union.
Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 deal during his first term, though Iran was in compliance with it at the time. Iran eventually abandoned the 2015 agreement and began enriching uranium up to 60 percent—close to weapons-grade levels of 90 percent—raising concerns worldwide and fueling regional tensions that eventually spiraled into the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran. The conflict ended after the U.S. bombed Iran’s key nuclear facilities.
Despite Trump’s assertion that Iran’s nuclear program has been obliterated, questions remain about the extent of the damage from the U.S. and Israeli strikes—and Iran has since suspended cooperation with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog.
Deadly stampede in Gaza. At least 20 people were killed in a stampede at an aid distribution site in Gaza run by a controversial U.S.- and Israel-backed organization, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). There are conflicting accounts on what caused the stampede, but the fatal episode follows a broader trend of deadly incidents tied to the divisive aid distribution system, which has been boycotted by the United Nations.
Close to 700 people have been killed in the vicinity of GHF sites since late May, per data from the U.N. released this week.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is continuing to press for a cease-fire in Gaza. The White House has expressed optimism about a deal in the near future, though negotiations continue to hit an array of roadblocks—including a controversial proposal from Israel’s defense minister to move much of Gaza’s population into a small, closed-off zone in the enclave’s south, which critics say would violate international law.
Snapshot
Chelsea FC celebrates with the FIFA Club World Cup trophy after the team’s victory as U.S. President Donald Trump looks on at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on July 13. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Hot Mic
Former U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday for a confirmation hearing over his nomination to be the next U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Waltz was grilled by Democratic senators over his involvement in the Signalgate scandal, among other issues. He maintained that no classified information was shared in the Signal chat at the center of the controversy.
SitRep caught up with Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth, who sits on the committee, after the hearing. Duckworth said she was “disappointed” with Waltz’s performance. Waltz “really didn’t take responsibility for Signalgate” and “tried to lie about” the scandal rather than saying that he “messed up,” Duckworth said.
The Illinois senator said there was “clearly” classified information discussed in the Signal chat, which pertained to impending U.S. strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, despite Waltz’s claims to the contrary. “Just that, in itself, disqualifies him for any sensitive government job,” Duckworth said.
Duckworth also expressed concern that Rubio, who replaced Waltz as national security advisor, is “spread too thin” as he also continues to serve as the nation’s top diplomat, among other government roles.
“No human being, no one single person, can do what they’re asking Rubio to do, including at a time when they’re slashing the State Department and they’re slashing USAID,” Duckworth said, referring to the U.S. Agency for International Development.
She pointed to the fact that the administration recently sent a tariff letter to the leaders of the military junta in Myanmar despite the fact that Washington doesn’t formally recognize it as the legitimate government of the country. This “demonstrated a complete lack of coordination with the State Department by their economic team, because the military junta in Myanmar is now seizing that as a legitimizing communication with the United States,” Duckworth said.
Put On Your Radar
Thursday, July 24: An EU-China summit is set to begin in Beijing.
Quote of the Week
“It’s going to require a little bit less navel-gazing and a little less whining and being in fetal positions. And it’s going to require Democrats to just toughen up.”
—Former U.S. President Barack Obama speaking at a recent fundraiser about what Democrats need to do to challenge Trump. Obama criticized members of his own party whom he said have been “cowed and intimidated” away from “asserting what they believe.”
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