On Oct. 15, Poles will vote for a new parliament. As the ruling national-conservative government led by the Law and Justice (PiS) party fights a hotly contested race with a centrist opposition bloc, the Civic Coalition, the future of not only Poland but the European Union is on the line. Whereas an opposition victory could present an opportunity for the EU to capitalize on new geopolitical momentum generated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in order to consolidate its unity as a bloc and strategic actor, a third term for PiS and its allies could cause this nascent effort to crash on the shoals of a Polish government determined to play spoiler.
Since Russia’s invasion, many have hailed Poland as Europe’s new geopolitical center of gravity because of its leadership in opposing the Russian threat. Warsaw’s credentials on defense are undeniable, including substantial military aid to Ukraine and a rapid defense buildup of its own. But when it comes to Europe’s long-standing ambition to forge an “ever closer union” better able to resist global turmoil, the current Polish government has been a consistent centrifugal force. Since coming to power in 2015, PiS has attempted to block measures to deepen EU cohesion and even roll back existing forms of integration, prioritizing national sovereignty at the cost of weakening the EU’s effectiveness as a bloc.
The most visible way in which Warsaw has undermined integration has been its attacks on the EU’s legal order. By eroding Polish judicial independence—one of the fundamental democratic obligations binding member states together—and refusing to abide by rulings from the European Court of Justice ordering it to correct these violations, the PiS-led government has challenged the laws and treaties governing the EU. While this hostility toward a key pillar of European integration is likely to continue if the ruling coalition retains power, the opposition has pledged to prioritize resolving the rule of law dispute with Brussels—and thereby unlock some $38 billion in withheld EU funds.
If Poland left the camp of the EU’s spoilers and renewed its adherence to the bloc’s legal order, it would have knock-on effects far beyond the EU-Poland relationship, most importantly by weakening Euroskeptic forces in other member states. Undoubtedly emboldened by PiS’s actions, right-wing politicians in several other European countries, including Italy and France, have in the past professed their own desires to withdraw from supranational treaty obligations. Moreover, PiS has actively sought to lead a coalition of populist and far-right political parties across the bloc. Warsaw hosted a meeting of numerous leaders of such parties in 2021. This February, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proclaimed their determination to push back against a “centralist vision” of Europe. In France, populist leader Marine Le Pen no longer calls for France to leave the EU but has promised to “turn the European Union upside down.”
In addition to undermining existing pillars of EU integration, Poland’s government has put a brake on efforts toward further integration. One of the most important reforms currently being debated in the EU is the extension of qualified majority voting to new areas such as foreign policy, as the bloc’s looming enlargement threatens the viability of unanimous decision-making. Predictably, Warsaw vociferously opposes this shift.
In a speech at Heidelberg University in Germany in March, Morawiecki asserted that “more centralization means more of the same mistakes. It is a failure not to listen to the voices of those countries that were right about Putin.” He was referring to countries such as Germany and France, whose governments long pursued good (and profitable) relations with Russia, despite the concerns of Poland and other Central and Eastern European member states. Poland is not the only EU member state to hold such a view. Recent experience, however, has demonstrated that the requirement for unanimous decisions, rather than being a bulwark against accommodation with Russia, is often a conduit for Kremlin influence. Pro-Russian Trojan horses such as Hungary have used their veto power to block key EU initiatives, such as stronger sanctions on Russia. Though PiS claims to wish to increase Europe’s ability to stand up against Moscow, its ideological commitment to deeper integration could accomplish the opposite.
The Civic Coalition, by contrast, has pledged on the campaign trail to “return to the decision-making group in the EU institutions,” suggesting a far less obstructive approach to institutional reforms. And while the Civic Coalition has not come out firmly in favor of greater qualified majority voting, leader Donald Tusk’s previous tenure as European Council president suggests an opposition victory would likely result in a more receptive Polish position. Tusk notably included qualified majority voting as a topic for consideration in his invitation letter to heads of state and government ahead of a 2018 European Council meeting, and the following year he endorsed the use of qualified majority voting in the selection of a new European Commission president.
The current Polish government’s opposition to deeper integration also undermines its ostensible support of EU enlargement to include Ukraine. While Morawiecki told his Heidelberg audience that Poland’s “pro-Europeanism is expressed by [its] mindset of enlargement,” the accession of Ukraine and other candidate countries will require fundamental EU reforms, including on unanimous voting. Morawiecki’s suggestion to facilitate enlargement by reducing “the number of areas under EU competence” is a non-starter in most other member countries. For Ukraine and other potential members, it would hollow out the meaning of membership and fail to deliver many of the benefits of integration that motivated the candidates to apply in the first place. The unserious nature of Poland’s professed commitment to enlargement became even clearer in recent weeks, after it unilaterally closed its borders to Ukrainian grain shipments. This decision undercuts Kyiv’s ability to win its war against Russia—a crucial condition for its eventual EU membership.
Warsaw’s resistance to EU reform as a precondition for enlargement puts it at loggerheads with Berlin, one of the leading proponents of greater deepening. This fits within a larger trend that has seen the PiS-led government paint Germany as its chief adversary within the bloc. Polish politicians and pro-government media have openly accused Berlin of desiring to “liquidate member states” and turn the EU into a federalized “Fourth Reich” under German hegemony. In this anti-German propaganda, Tusk is portrayed as a Hitleresque agent of German influence whose victory would bring about the “end of Poland.” If continued, this antagonism toward Germany will severely threaten the future of the European project, as effective Polish-German cooperation is as key to the EU’s development today as Franco-German cooperation was after 1945. Fortunately, Berlin has not yet given up on Warsaw, restraining itself from responding to its toxic rhetoric and continuing to pursue practical economic and defense cooperation. The conditions are therefore ripe for a new leader such as Tusk to take the wheel and ignite the Polish-German engine that will be crucial for Europe’s future.
Admittedly, an opposition victory would not be a silver bullet for Poland’s relationship with the EU. Mistrust about Germany’s and France’s approach to Russia runs deep, and any Polish government is likely to be wary of any EU initiatives that it believes could jeopardize Warsaw’s relationship with Washington. Finally, even if the Civic Coalition is able to form a government, it may need to work with coalition partners that hold a more skeptical approach toward Brussels. Nonetheless, a fresh approach to Poland’s EU partners by a Civic Coalition-led government would significantly widen the window for further EU integration.
In the run-up to Poland’s election, many have highlighted the stakes for the future of liberal democracy in Poland. Yet the negative consequences of another PiS-led government would extend far beyond Poland itself, threatening the continuation of the European integration process that has delivered peace and prosperity to hundreds of millions of people over the past seven decades. A sea change in Warsaw is necessary to preserve this fragile success—and could see Poland take on its rightful role as a true EU leader.