Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Pakistan grapples with militant threats along its borders with Iran and Afghanistan, former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan receives two prison sentences in one week, and India prepares to unveil a politically important budget.
Border Tensions Amplify Pakistan’s Security Crisis
Earlier this month, Iran and Pakistan exchanged cross-border strikes, with each side targeting separatist militants that it alleges the other country harbors. Relations were plunged into crisis before officials quickly agreed to de-escalate. However, developments in the past few days have amplified the security challenges that Pakistan faces on its border with Iran—all while it struggles to address growing terrorism threats along another border with Afghanistan.
On Monday, militants launched a coordinated attack in Mach, a town in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. The ethnic separatist Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility; Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes in Iran on Jan. 18 targeted the BLA, which Islamabad says has long taken sanctuary across the border. Pakistani security officials say the Monday assault was quickly repelled, though some Baloch media dispute that claim.
The BLA assault in Mach came two days after nine Pakistani laborers were killed in the Iranian city of Saravan, the same place where Pakistan carried out its cross-border strikes. No group has yet claimed responsibility for that attack, but Pakistan likely suspects the BLA or an ally.
Meanwhile, Pakistan is grappling with rising tensions on its northwestern border with Afghanistan. Attacks inside Pakistan by the Afghanistan-based Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have surged since the Afghan Taliban seized power in 2021. Aside from brokering unsuccessful talks between Pakistani officials and TTP leaders, the Taliban have done little to curb the threat, stoking tensions with their longtime allies in Islamabad.
These tensions are increasingly affecting Afghans and Pakistanis alike, who are caught in the middle of what appear to be Islamabad’s tactics to pressure the Taliban regime to do more. Last November, Pakistan announced a policy that expelled hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees. A key border crossing between the countries was closed for 10 days in early January after Pakistan announced that Afghan truck drivers must now have visas to enter the country.
Ironically, Pakistan’s border with its bitter rival India is calm, thanks to a 2021 truce that dramatically reduced cross-border violence. But possible flare-ups are never far away, and tensions between the countries have intensified in recent days amid detailed Pakistani allegations that India has carried out targeted assassinations in Pakistan. Islamabad also accused New Delhi of sponsoring the BLA attack in Mach. Pakistan has long alleged that New Delhi is the BLA’s main external backer. (India rejects these allegations.)
Pakistan’s security concerns along its borders reflect a trend across South Asia. Both India and Bhutan dispute their borders with China, which are vulnerable to Chinese incursions. Myanmar’s civil war is spilling over its border with Bangladesh. India recently announced plans to fence its border with Myanmar due to security issues. These tensions not only pose stability risks, but also make elusive regional cooperation and connectivity more difficult. They also distract policy attention from critical domestic challenges.
The impacts of border tensions are hitting Pakistan especially hard, though. Its economy is one of the region’s worst performing, so it loses out disproportionately when trade is limited or when cross-border infrastructure projects can’t move forward. At the same time, Islamabad’s own policies are part of the problem, from the sanctuary and support it has provided to terrorist groups in the past to its refusal to implement structural reforms that would strengthen economic resilience.
Pakistan holds elections next week, and the main campaign themes revolve around the country’s economic crisis and bitter political rivalries. But border issues loom large in the polls. Terrorists have targeted campaign rallies and political candidates, including an attack on Tuesday that killed four people in southwestern Pakistan. Islamabad’s next government will prioritize economic recovery, but it can’t afford to look away from border tensions that are exacerbating a security crisis that could spook donors and investors.
What We’re Following
Imran Khan sentenced to years behind bars. On Tuesday, a Pakistani special court sentenced former Prime Minister Imran Khan to 10 years in prison for violating a state secrets law. (Khan is already in prison for a corruption conviction that he alleges is politically motivated.) Khan was accused of leaking a private cable in 2022 from Pakistan’s then-ambassador to the United States, Asad Majeed Khan, about a meeting with a senior U.S. State Department official.
Khan argued that he had a duty to make the cable’s contents public, claiming that it exposed a U.S. plot to oust him from power; Washington has repeatedly denied Khan’s allegations, and Pakistani reports say that the former ambassador told the court that the cable did not make reference to any U.S. conspiracy. The court deliberations were opaque: Journalists weren’t allowed to cover the trial, and Khan aides complained that some members of his legal team couldn’t participate.
Then, on Wednesday, Khan received a separate 14-year sentence on corruption charges. The impact of these latest convictions on Pakistan’s Feb. 8 elections will be purely symbolic, given that Khan is already behind bars, which rules out his participation. But they compound Khan’s immense legal woes, complicating efforts to receive relief—such as bail or reduced sentences—much less secure his freedom in the months ahead.
Indian Navy rescues Pakistani sailors. On Monday, an Indian destroyer saved an Iranian-flagged fishing vessel and its Pakistani crew after pirates hijacked the ship off the coast of Somalia, according to an Indian Navy statement. Pakistan has not said anything publicly about the incident. India also rescued a Sri Lankan ship from pirates on Monday, and an Indian destroyer helped a British-flagged vessel with a mostly Indian crew after it was hit by a Houthi missile attack in the Gulf of Aden last Saturday.
India has bolstered its naval posture in the Indian Ocean region in response to increasing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, a critical trade route for India, especially for energy imports from the Middle East. With a set of guided missile destroyers and reconnaissance aircraft now patrolling the area, the Indian Navy is better placed to help vessels in distress, allowing it to showcase its capacity as a net security provider in an increasingly unstable part of the world.
India declined to participate in the U.S.-led military campaign against the Houthis, but its posturing in the region is another example of New Delhi’s strategic autonomy—in which it helps partners tackle security threats while not directly allying with them.
India to unveil new budget. On Thursday, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will unveil the government’s interim budget for the first few months of India’s fiscal year, which begins on April 1. This budget is especially politically important, as it will be announced just a few months before the country’s national elections.
It also comes as economists have expressed concerns about the sustainability of India’s strong economic growth, citing high unemployment, a slowing manufacturing sector, and sluggish private consumption rates. To this end, the budget is likely to strike a balance between fiscal prudence and increased welfare spending.
Under the Radar
Politics in the Maldives have taken a dramatic turn. The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), a rival of President Mohamed Muizzu that currently holds a majority in Parliament, threatened to submit a motion to impeach Muizzu on Monday. Tensions have risen between Muizzu, who took office in November, and the MDP in the wake of a brawl in Parliament over the weekend, when the MDP and pro-Muizzu legislators disagreed about several cabinet picks.
It’s unclear what charges the MDP wants to impeach Muizzu for, but his strong pro-China stance—which has infuriated his political rivals—may be a factor. Muizzu has vowed to expel Indian military personnel from the Maldives by March 15 and recently decided to allow a Chinese research vessel to dock in the country. The Maldives holds parliamentary elections on March 17.
The MDP says it has the votes to pass an impeachment motion, but pro-Muizzu parliamentarians say that won’t happen. A senior leader of Muizzu’s coalition declared that “they will have to kill us all first before they can even think” of impeaching the president. If the motion goes through, Muizzu would have 14 days to prepare a response in Parliament, after which an impeachment vote could take place immediately.
Regardless of what happens, this crisis is a fresh reminder—following a separate incident last week—that despite helping him get elected, Muizzu’s stance against India could have political costs.
FP’s Most Read This Week
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- The Reason China Can’t Stop Its Decline by Howard W. French
- 3 Options for How Biden Could Respond to Iran by Jack Detsch
Regional Voices
In Dawn, researcher Arooj Waheed Dar warns that Pakistan’s youth bulge cannot be ignored. “With elections coming up, there is a serious need for policymaking circles to reconsider the direction they want to take the country in, especially with regard to the youth,” she writes. “Addressing the youth at conferences to emphasize the importance of democratic governments simply doesn’t cut it.”
Former telecommunications official Ananda Raj Khanal offers a blueprint for Nepal’s digital transformation. “Supporting Nepal’s data centre and cloud service providers is more than practical; it is an investment in the nation’s digital future, ensuring innovation, resilience and sustainable growth, while saving foreign currency from importing such services,” he writes.
A Daily Star editorial highlights the challenge of rising women’s unemployment in Bangladesh: “[F]or our nation to prosper economically and socially, so must our women. Therefore, it is imperative to ask where the system has faltered and find ways to tackle this growing crisis.”