Understanding the conflict three years on.



Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s White House visit, the next phase of the Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal, and a possible end to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
A U.S. ‘Backstop’
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer arrived at the White House on Thursday with one overarching message for U.S. President Donald Trump: U.S. military backing is vital to ensure a lasting peace in Ukraine.
“The security guarantee has to be sufficient to deter [Russian President Vladimir] Putin from coming again,” Starmer said ahead of his arrival in Washington. “Because my concern is if there is a cease-fire without a backstop, it will simply give [Putin] the opportunity to wait and to come again because his ambition in relation to Ukraine is pretty obvious for all to see.”
Starmer has suggested a willingness to provide British troops as part of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine but has said that London’s involvement would be contingent on the United States providing air, logistics, and communications support. To demonstrate his seriousness, Starmer on Tuesday announced the biggest increase in British defense spending since the end of the Cold War, a rise from 2.3 percent of the country’s GDP to 2.5 percent by 2027.
Trump has previously urged NATO allies in Europe to take on a greater share of the defense burden. But it appears that Starmer’s actions were still not enough to fully sway the U.S. president.
During his first formal U.S. cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Trump dismissed the idea of U.S. security guarantees, saying, “We’re going to have Europe do that.” He doubled down on that position on Thursday, adding that a cease-fire in Ukraine is needed before they can decide on a peacekeeping force. When asked on Thursday whether the United States would support British peacekeeping troops in Ukraine if they were attacked, though, Trump said, “If they need help, I’ll always be with the British.”
Russia reiterated on Wednesday that it would not consider “any options” for a European deterrence force being sent to Kyiv.
Trump has upended trans-Atlantic unity in recent weeks, as Washington shifts closer to the Kremlin and Kyiv’s European allies scramble to deter Moscow. “There’s one aggressor here and that’s Russia, in clear breach of the U.N. Charter,” Starmer told the Guardian. “Russia can end this conflict tomorrow by withdrawing and stopping their aggression.”
However, at the White House on Thursday, Trump said he trusts Putin, saying, “I think he’ll keep her word” concerning a peace deal with Ukraine. At the same time, he appeared to backpedal on a Truth Social post in which he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “a dictator,” asking a reporter, “Uh, did I say that? I can’t believe I said that.”
The Trump-Starmer meeting comes just one day before Zelensky is expected at the White House to sign a rare-earth minerals deal that Kyiv hopes will come with a U.S. military assistance commitment.
Today’s Most Read
- Trump’s New Map by Robert D. Kaplan
- Yes, America Is Europe’s Enemy Now by Stephen M. Walt
- Samuel Huntington Is Getting His Revenge by Nils Gilman
What We’re Following
Ready for phase two? Hamas expressed readiness on Thursday to engage in negotiations for phase two of the cease-fire and hostage release deal, but Israel does not appear to be on the same page. On Thursday, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced that a delegation would be sent to Cairo to discuss extending phase one, which is set to expire in two days. “We are ready to make the framework longer in return to release more hostages,” Saar said, just hours after Hamas handed over four dead hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
Under Israel’s proposed extension, Hamas would free three captives each week for more detained Palestinians. Such a move would delay the onset of phase two, which is intended to secure the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. It is unclear what might happen if Israel and Hamas fail to come to an agreement before the first phase expires.
Israel has repeatedly rejected any mandate to remove its troops from the Philadelphi corridor, a portion of Gaza along its border with Egypt, arguing that an Israeli presence is needed to prevent weapons smuggling from Egypt into Gaza. An Israeli official speaking on the condition of anonymity reiterated that position to The Associated Press on Thursday, but Hamas has said that any Israeli attempt to maintain control of the corridor would be a “blatant violation” of the cease-fire deal.
Hamas further stressed on Thursday that the “only way” for Israel to secure the release of the remaining hostages would be to adhere to the initial agreement. Any attempt to leave the truce “will only lead to more suffering” for the captives and their families, it added.
Dissolving the PKK. Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), delivered a rare message on Thursday that sparked hope of an end to the guerrilla organization’s decades-long conflict against the Turkish state. “All groups must lay down their arms, and the PKK must dissolve itself,” Ocalan wrote in a letter, adding that the conflict had “run its course” while urging Ankara to respect ethnic minorities, freedom of expression, and other democratic practices.
Ocalan’s appeal followed a series of talks with Turkish authorities and members of the pro-Kurdish People’s Equality and Democracy Party. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in January that Ankara had offered Ocalan no concessions but agreed that ending the conflict was the best thing for both Turks and Kurds.
Whether PKK leadership will listen to Ocalan’s demand is still to be seen. Already, Kurdish-led forces in Syria called Ocalan’s message “positive,” and senior Turkish parliamentarian Efkan Ala said that such an end would allow Turkey to be “free of its shackles.” More than 40,000 people have been killed since the PKK launched its campaign in 1984, which began as a separatist movement.
Back in business. Three Austrian parties reached a deal on Thursday to form a coalition government, five months after the far-right Freedom Party won legislative elections but its pro-Russian leader, Herbert Kickl, failed to form a ruling bloc. The new coalition consists of the center-right People’s Party, the center-left Social Democratic Party, and the pro-business Neos party.
“Behind us are what were perhaps the most difficult government negotiations in the history of our country,” said People’s Party leader Christian Stocker, who is expected to become Austria’s next chancellor. The delay in forming a coalition broke a 1962 record of 129 days without a government.
To announce their unity agreement, the three parties unveiled a policy program that included key right-wing measures, such as cutting welfare payments to asylum-seekers, abolishing family reunification for refugees, and banning Islamic headscarves for girls under age 14. The alliance also vowed to address economic concerns by freezing rents for one year and curbing excessive government spending.
Odds and Ends
The Academy Awards on Sunday will award actors for their range and versatility. But maybe, they should be looking at one British citizen to understand what a believable performance entails. On Tuesday, 61-year-old Josephine Maurice admitted to a local court that she wore wigs and other disguises to illegally take U.K. citizenship tests for 13 different men and women. “As with many criminals who commit this type of crime, we believe her motive was financial gain,” immigration enforcement officer Phillip Parr said. Maurice will face sentencing on May 20.