South African policymakers are worried about a potential victory for former U.S. President Donald Trump. High tariffs and trade protectionism drove Trump’s first term, weakening South Africa’s currency, the rand.
The idea of removing South Africa from preferential trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has often received bipartisan support because the country has restricted U.S. meat imports to protect local farmers.
Last year, calls grew louder for South Africa to be sanctioned after the U.S. ambassador to the country accused it of supplying weapons to Russia. That diplomatic spat led to the rand crashing, which fell again in July after investors worried that an assassination attempt against Trump would boost his approval ratings.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s newly established government of national unity—which includes the pro-Israel and business-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA)—might leave room for negotiations with a transactional Trump administration, though South African politicians remain wary. If Trump were to win the election, “I think it’s going to be bad news for South Africa’s trade access to the United States through [AGOA],” said former DA leader Tony Leon, on FP’s podcast Counterpoint.
Some observers perceive a link between Trumpism and South Africa’s far-right political history. Four of Trump’s prominent backers, including major donor Elon Musk, have roots in apartheid-era South Africa. “Southern Africa under apartheid offered an extreme version of some of the main themes of American life today,” Simon Kuper wrote in the Financial Times. Both Trump and Musk have had a shaky relationship with Pretoria since they shared conspiracy theories that white South African farmers were being killed.
In reality, U.S. policy toward South Africa hasn’t changed much in the past decade. However, Pretoria’s choice to allocate funds to its genocide case against Israel could fuel continued animosity between the two governments.
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