Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: An attempted coup in Guinea-Bissau, Israel’s controversial guest worker deal with Malawi, and a sartorial scandal in Kenya’s Parliament.

A protester wearing a T-shirt in support of the Niger, Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso junta leaders gestures during a demonstration on independence day in Niamey, Niger on Aug. 3. AFP via Getty Images

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger’s foreign ministers on Friday recommended that the countries form a confederation following a two-day meeting in Mali’s capital, Bamako. The meeting aimed to flesh out the details of the new Alliance of Sahel States, created in September, which commits each country to come to the others’ aid in defense against external aggression.

Many of the meeting’s recommendations on military and economic integration appeared similar to the concept undergirding the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the now 11-member regional body from which the junta-led countries, alongside Guinea, were ousted following repeated coups d’états since 2020.

The countries’ finance ministers are considering ways to create an investment bank and economic stabilization fund as well as a monetary union. Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop said their recommendations would be submitted to each head of state.

Security experts believe these recent moves are nothing more than political grandstanding to legitimize junta rule in the face of punitive sanctions imposed by ECOWAS.

Nate Allen, an associate professor at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies told the Associated Press that the partnership was in reality “‘an effort to entrench and legitimize (their) military governments’ more than to tackle the violent extremism which they have limited capacity to fight.”

As Folahanmi Aina wrote in Foreign Policy, the alliance fails to tackle the root causes of violent extremism in the region, which include socioeconomic grievances, human rights violations, and climate change. Instead it “is a convenient arrangement adopted by the putschists to mask their fear of uncertainty in a climate of heightened tension with France.”

Niger—which experienced a decline in violence prior to the coup—has focused its efforts on revoking deals with European governments. Niger’s junta on Monday scrapped two military agreements with the European Union as junta leader Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani instead discussed military cooperation with a Russian delegation led by Russia’s Deputy Minister of Defense Yunus-Bek Yevkurov in the Nigerien capital, Niamey. (The Russian delegation also traveled to Bamako.) 

Niger’s foreign affairs ministry said the government had decided to withdraw from the EU Military Partnership Mission in Niger, launched in February, and the EU Civilian Capacity-Building Mission, set up in 2012.

A controversial pact aimed at stopping migration to Europe signed under pressure from the European Union in 2015 was also revoked last week by the junta. Ousted Nigerien President Mohammed Bazoum was crucial to the law’s implementation, but many locals despised the deal, which they viewed as benefiting others. In a survey by the Centre for Africa-Europe Relations, 65 percent of respondents believed that the Agadez community, a major Nigerien migration hub benefited from the migration industry—earning an income selling food and transportation to migrants travelling to Europe, including security officials who accept bribes in one of the world’s poorest economies. Less than half (44 percent) said the same about international development programs offered by the EU as part of a deal to stop migrants.

Violence has surged in all three countries since the military takeovers, spreading to coastal neighbors Ghana, Togo, and Benin. During the 18 months since the first coup in Burkina Faso, in January 2022, the number of people killed by militant Islamist groups soared 165 percent. After Afghanistan, Burkina Faso now accounts for more terrorism deaths annually than anywhere else in the world. The number of deaths in Mali increased by more than 50 percent from 2021 to 2022.

An armed group killed 40 civilians last week in Burkina Faso’s northern town of Djibo following an attack on a military base. At least 70 people, mostly children and the elderly, were killed last month in an attack on the northern village of Zaongo.

Burkina Faso’s junta announced in April a “general mobilization” decree to recapture the half of the country’s territory lost to various Islamist groups. The decree empowers the government to conscript men and women to fight and “restrain certain civil liberties.” Details of age limits for those to be conscripted were not released.

Human Rights Watch warned earlier this month that the legislation is also being used to punish dissent, targeting journalists, activists, and political opposition figures “who have openly criticized the junta.”

On Nov. 6 and 7, two journalists critical of the government were conscripted to join the Burkinabe army and fight against jihadists. “Conscripting journalists, including one aged 64, who have never undergone any military training is an appalling way to silence them,” Reporters Without Borders wrote in a statement.

On Friday, another Burkinabe journalist, Daouda Diallo, a 2022 recipient of the Martin Ennals Award for human rights work, was abducted by four or more unidentified men in Burkina Faso’s capital of Ouagadougou after visiting the passport office to renew his documents.

Amnesty International said Diallo’s abduction was “presumably [for him] to be forcibly conscripted” after he was notified in writing last month along with other journalists and activists by Burkina Faso’s security forces.

Meanwhile, as Islamist militant groups grow in strength, Burkina Faso and Niger said over the weekend that they planned to quit the Group of Five (G-5) Sahel alliance set up by France and the European Union.

Chad and Mauritania are the only remaining members of the alliance. Mali left the force last year.

Ultimately, by pooling their resources together, coup countries in the Sahel are finding ways to hold out against ostracization and hold onto power, despite their countries’ deteriorating security.

Wednesday, Dec. 6, to Tuesday, Dec. 12: The U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP28) continues in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Wednesday, Dec. 6 to Friday, Dec. 8: The African Union hosts its Sixth Congress of African Economists in Lusaka, Zambia.

Sunday, Dec. 10 to Tuesday, Dec. 12: Egypt holds a presidential election.

Egyptian elections. Egyptians abroad cast their ballots over the weekend in presidential elections that will take place locally beginning on Dec. 10. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is seeking a third term despite promising otherwise in 2018. He is expected to win since he controls almost all state institutions. Egyptian journalist Hossam el-Hamalawy called the election “a sideshow at best.” Hamalawy argued that the real test of Sisi’s survival will be whether the war in Gaza can provide his administration “leverage with Western and Gulf governments as well as international donors” to ease the country’s financial crisis.

Another Guinea-Bissau coup attempt. Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo dissolved an opposition dominated parliament on Monday and said legislative elections would be set without specifying a date. Clashes between two army factions that broke out in the capital on Thursday night and continued on Friday were an attempted coup, Embalo said.

Last February, Embalo survived a failed coup attempt in which 11 people died. Local journalists have linked last week’s attack to the 2022 attempt because army members are still in jail without trial. During the failed uprising, members of the national guard tried to free Finance Minister Souleiman Seidi and Treasury Secretary Antonio Monteiro from a police station. The two officials were being questioned on order of the presidency about the withdrawal of $10 million from state accounts. Embalo’s critics accuse him of carrying out a “constitutional coup” in dissolving parliament. The incident follows a failed coup attempt in Sierra Leone on Nov. 26, the second in five months and during which 2,000 prisoners escaped.

Israel-Malawi deal. Malawi has agreed to a controversial farm laborer deal with Israel. Thai nationals working in Israel’s agriculture sector made up the largest group of foreign nationals among the 1,200 victims of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. Since the attacks, around 10,000 migrant workers—mainly Thais—have fled farms close to the Gaza border, and Israel has barred 20,000 Palestinian farmworkers from entering, leaving Israel’s agriculture industry with a severe labor shortage.

Malawian workers will be sent to replace them—part of a scheme to ease the country’s foreign exchange shortage and tied to a $60 million Israeli aid package. The new recruits will earn $1,500 a month but will receive only a “small percentage” of that salary per month in Israel. The remainder will be banked on their behalf in newly opened accounts in Malawi to raise $180 million a year in foreign reserves. The country’s opposition called the deal an “evil transaction” and local rights groups slammed it as akin to modern-day slavery. More than 300 young Malawians have already left for Israel on chartered flights, and thousands are expected go in the next few months.

New Rwanda pact. British Home Secretary James Cleverly signed a new asylum treaty with Rwanda on Tuesday in Rwanda’s capital, Kigali. The United Kingdom’s Supreme Court last month ruled that sending refugees to Rwanda would breach international and domestic laws due to Rwanda’s poor human rights record under Rwandan President Paul Kagame. The U.K. government said it would create new legislation to be rushed through Parliament declaring Rwanda safe for asylum seekers, and cooperate with Kagame to address the court’s concerns. So far, the U.K. government has paid the Rwandan government 140 million pounds (about $175 million), but no asylum seekers have yet been sent to the country.

Nigerian drone strikes civilians. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu ordered an investigation Tuesday into a weekend military drone strike on a community in northern Nigeria’s Kaduna state that killed an estimated 85 to 120 people, including women and children. Nigeria’s army is battling various armed gangs and bandits in northern Nigeria that raid and kidnap people for ransom.

Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Onyema Nwachukwu said that troops observed villagers celebrating a Muslim festival and “wrongly analyzed and misinterpreted their pattern of activities to be similar to that of the bandits” before the drone strike. The Nigerian military has a long history of mistakenly bombing civilians due to inaccurate information. According to the Nigerian Guardian, this is the army’s tenth accidental bombing of civilians in two years.

Britain’s King Charles III and Kenyan President William Ruto meet in Mombasa, Kenya, on Nov. 2. Samir Hussein/WireImage

Kenyan lawmakers are now banned from wearing so-called Kaunda suits and traditional African attire in Parliament. Kaunda suits consist of a short-sleeved safari shirt with patch pockets, upturned collar, and matching trousers, popularized in the 1960s by Zambia’s first president, Kenneth Kaunda. The outfit is a favorite of current Kenyan President William Ruto.

Moses Wetangula, the speaker of Kenya’s Parliament, is not a fan. He decreed that male members of parliament should wear Western-style suits; for women, “skirts and dresses should be below knee-length and decent” and “sleeveless blouses are prohibited.” The rules also apply to guests and journalists visiting Parliament. Wetangula said that, while the directive might be uncomfortable to some, “discomfort is necessary for the convenience and security of members and good order.”

The Kaunda suit shirt is similar to shirts worn by the late Chinese communist leader Mao Zedong, and Wetangula referred to the attire as “Mao Zedong coats.” His speech has prompted backlash from Kenyans on social media who are outraged that African clothing is being banned by an African government.

Henry Kissinger, Colossus on the World Stage, by Michael Hirsh

What Was Hamas Thinking? by Tareq Baconi

Chinese Hospitals Are Housing Another Deadly Outbreak, by Annie Sparrow

South Africa’s Russian deal. Susan Comrie reports in amaBhungane that South Africa’s state-owned Petroleum Oil and Gas Corporation is considering a bid by Russian private banking firm Gazprombank to invest at least $200 million in a refinery, despite the oil company’s board and committee voicing concerns about the partnership’s suitability. South Africa’s Reserve Bank warned that “the possible imposition of secondary sanctions on South Africa … could lead to financial instability in South Africa” and “the South African financial system will not be able to function if it is not able to make international payments in USD.”

Sex abuse at orphanage. In the Washington Post, Rael Ombuor reports that the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) awarded at least $29 million from 1996 to 2022 for projects associated with the Kenyan orphanage Nyumbani, which is now facing multiple claims of sexual abuse. A 2021 USAID investigation into the Catholic orphanage detailed evidence of sexual assaults against children, including the rape of a six-year-old girl.

The two USAID programs on care for children with HIV were run by the Children of God Relief Institute, which also ran the orphanage. Then-U.S. Vice President Mike Pence praised Nyumbani’s director on World AIDS Day in 2018. Last year, the Kenyan government introduced the 2022 Children Act; and this October, the minister of social protection said the government plans to close all privately run children’s homes and orphanages within eight years due to problems with child trafficking.

Kagame’s fourth term. Rwandan politician Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza argues in the Elephant that while Kagame has tripled the country’s GDP per capita during his 30-year tenure, from $304 in 1995 to $940 in 2022, he has failed to transform Rwanda from a low- to middle-income country due to a lack of citizen engagement in politics and development policies.

“Rwanda’s human capital development remains below the average for African countries,” Umuhoza writes. “President Kagame should not run for a fourth term as the governance of Rwanda needs to be reformed so that it becomes more tolerant of critics, democratic and inclusive.”